Delaware vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DELTeam statsCOLO
- Q4 14:13COLOMicah Welch 10 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–31
- Q3 13:46COLOSincere Brown 71 Yd pass from Ryan Staub (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–24
- Q2 0:09COLODekalon Taylor 21 Yd pass from Ryan Staub (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:45DELJo Silver 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)7–10
- Q2 13:03COLOAlejandro Mata 28 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 5:33COLOKaidon Salter 9 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- DEL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassNick Minicucci 18/36, 312 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJo Silver 11 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecJake Thaw 4 REC, 85 YDS
- PassRyan Staub 7/10, 158 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSimeon Price 9 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecSincere Brown 4 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:45DEL +17%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 4 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
- Q2 0:09COLO +16%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dekalon Taylor for 21 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q1 5:33COLO +15%
Kaidon Salter run for 9 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q3 13:46COLO +7%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Sincere Brown for 71 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q2 13:03COLO +7%
Alejandro Mata 28 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Colorado?
Delaware 7, Colorado 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (COLO) was correct.
| DEL | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 398 |
| 312 | Passing yards | 268 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/36 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-31 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 27:03 | Possession | 32:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:41 COLO punt on 4th & 9 at DEL 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:13COLOMicah Welch 10 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–31
- Q3 13:46COLOSincere Brown 71 Yd pass from Ryan Staub (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–24
- Q2 0:09COLODekalon Taylor 21 Yd pass from Ryan Staub (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:45DELJo Silver 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)7–10
- Q2 13:03COLOAlejandro Mata 28 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 5:33COLOKaidon Salter 9 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1613, DEL Elo 1500 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO -6.9 (69% to win) — 16.6 points clear of DEL's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DEL | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.0 (#107) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#101) |
| -5 / +10 | offense / defense | -5 / +7 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 1.79 |
| 2.63 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →