| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEL | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| COLO | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (COLO Elo 1613, DEL Elo 1500) plus home-field advantage. That projects COLO -6.9 (70% to win) — 16.6 points of value on DEL versus the market line of -23.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = DEL ahead, below = COLO ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
COLO up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Delaware 7, Colorado 31.
Yes — the model's pick (COLO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had COLO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ryan Staub pass complete to Sincere Brown for 71 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 67 yds Ja'Carree Kelly fumbled, recovered by DEL Jeremiah Brown
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 67 yds Ja'Carree Kelly fumbled, recovered by DEL Jeremiah Brown
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