Colorado
3-4·Big 12· Elo 1611
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| UTAH | 17 | 26 | 3 | 7 | 53 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTAH Elo 1771, COLO Elo 1611) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -8.8 (74% to win) — 5.2 points of value on COLO versus the market line of -14.
UTAH up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Colorado 7, Utah 53.
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTAH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Ficklin rush left for 63 yards gain to the COL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:23, 1ST DOWN #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
End of 1st quarter.
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 N.Johnson rush middle for 56 yards gain to the COL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:12, 1ST DOWN #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
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