Colorado vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 3:12UTAHNate Johnson 56 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–53
- Q4 9:03COLORyan Staub 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–46
- Q3 1:42UTAHDillon Curtis 45 Yd Field Goal 0–46
- Q2 0:00UTAHDillon Curtis 23 Yd Field Goal 0–43
- Q2 2:08UTAHLarry Simmons 20 Yd pass from Byrd Ficklin (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–40
- Q2 3:42UTAHNaQuari Rogers 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–33
- Q2 12:50UTAHJJ Buchanan 22 Yd pass from Byrd Ficklin (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–26
- Q2 14:30UTAHTeam Safety0–19
- Q1 2:53UTAHWayshawn Parker 58 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–17
- Q1 4:51UTAHDillon Curtis 53 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:23UTAHByrd Ficklin 63 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassRyan Staub 4/8, 65 YDS
- RushKam Mikell 8 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecOmarion Miller 3 REC, 59 YDS
- PassByrd Ficklin 10/22, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RushByrd Ficklin 20 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLarry Simmons 2 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:51UTAH +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short right to #18 K.Mikell caught at COL30, for 6 yards to the COL31 (#3 L.Damuni)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. Utah?
Colorado 7, Utah 53.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| COLO | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 140 | Total yards | 587 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 165 |
| 38 | Rushing yards | 422 |
| 12 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 13/30 | Comp/Att | 11/25 |
| 3.4 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 8.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 8-80 |
| 26:22 | Possession | 33:38 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:49 UTAH go for it on 4th & 6 at UTAH 29. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:12UTAHNate Johnson 56 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–53
- Q4 9:03COLORyan Staub 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–46
- Q3 1:42UTAHDillon Curtis 45 Yd Field Goal 0–46
- Q2 0:00UTAHDillon Curtis 23 Yd Field Goal 0–43
- Q2 2:08UTAHLarry Simmons 20 Yd pass from Byrd Ficklin (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–40
- Q2 3:42UTAHNaQuari Rogers 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–33
- Q2 12:50UTAHJJ Buchanan 22 Yd pass from Byrd Ficklin (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–26
- Q2 14:30UTAHTeam Safety0–19
- Q1 2:53UTAHWayshawn Parker 58 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–17
- Q1 4:51UTAHDillon Curtis 53 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:23UTAHByrd Ficklin 63 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1771, COLO Elo 1611 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -8.8 (73% to win) — 5.2 points clear of COLO's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUtah leads 36–33–3 · 43% have been one-possession games
| COLO | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#101) | CORE overall | +29.1 (#7) |
| -5 / +7 | offense / defense | +19 / -10 |
| 1.79 | points / drive | 3.52 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 1.62 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →