Colorado vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsKSU
- Q4 2:37KSUJoe Jackson 17 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–24
- Q4 7:03COLOMicah Welch 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–17
- Q4 10:23KSULuis Rodriguez 35 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q3 4:32KSUJoe Jackson 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–14
- Q2 0:18COLOMicah Welch 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:40KSUJoe Jackson 4 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKaidon Salter 14/25, 172 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDallan Hayden 15 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecOmarion Miller 8 REC, 121 YDS
- PassAvery Johnson 10/17, 115 YDS
- RushJoe Jackson 26 CAR, 142 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJaron Tibbs 4 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:03COLO +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 4:32KSU +17%
Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 4:36KSU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CU42 (#40 S.Myers)
- Q2 0:18COLO +16%
Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:23KSU +9%
#43 L.Rodriguez field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD
- Q1 7:40KSU +9%
Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. Kansas State?
Colorado 14, Kansas State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
| COLO | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 323 | Total yards | 321 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 115 |
| 151 | Rushing yards | 206 |
| 18 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 14/25 | Comp/Att | 10/17 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 29:23 | Possession | 30:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:06 COLO punt on 4th & 3 at COLO 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:37KSUJoe Jackson 17 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–24
- Q4 7:03COLOMicah Welch 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–17
- Q4 10:23KSULuis Rodriguez 35 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q3 4:32KSUJoe Jackson 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–14
- Q2 0:18COLOMicah Welch 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:40KSUJoe Jackson 4 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1680, COLO Elo 1338 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -16.1 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado leads 45–22–1 · Kansas State has won 2 straight · 28% have been one-possession games
| COLO | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#101) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#49) |
| -5 / +7 | offense / defense | +3 / -4 |
| 1.79 | points / drive | 2.44 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →