| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 0 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 38 |
| USA | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (USA Elo 1532, CCU Elo 1172) plus home-field advantage. That projects USA -16.8 (89% to win) — 2.3 points of value on USA versus the market line of -14.5.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = CCU ahead, below = USA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. USA pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge USA.
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. USA rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USA.
- USA pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CCU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. South Alabama?
Coastal Carolina 38, South Alabama 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had USA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.