| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLT | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| UGA | 14 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UGA Elo 2070, CLT Elo 1013) plus home-field advantage. That projects UGA -44.7 (100% to win) — 2.2 points of value on UGA versus the market line of -42.5.
UGA up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Charlotte 3, Georgia 35.
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UGA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
(06:05) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass intercepted by #26 D.Okonkwo at UGA00, Touchback
(09:39) Shotgun #12 R.Puglisi pass incomplete short middle to #18 S.White-Helton thrown to CLT25, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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