| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| SJSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (SJSU Elo 1484, CMU Elo 1235) plus home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -12.4 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: SJSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- SJSU rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge CMU.
- CMU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. SJSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge SJSU.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SJSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. San José State?
Central Michigan 16, San José State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SJSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.