Sat, Aug 30, 2:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| SJSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SJSU Elo 1484, CMU Elo 1235) plus home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -12.4 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: SJSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
SJSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Central Michigan 16, San José State 14.
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SJSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 45 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
Walker Eget pass intercepted, touchback.
Angel Flores run for no gain to the SJSU 1
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