L&N Federal Credit Union StadiumConference game
Sun, Nov 9, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 7 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 29 |
| LOU | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LOU Elo 1737, CAL Elo 1392) plus home-field advantage. That projects LOU -16.2 (88% to win) — 2.3 points of value on CAL versus the market line of -18.5.
CAL up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
California 29, Louisville 26.
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had LOU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(14:10) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete deep right to #85 N.Kurisky caught at LOU45, for 37 yards to the CAL38 (#2 D.Polidore Jr.), 1ST DOWN
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush left for 35 yards gain to the CAL31 (#5 H.Masses; #8 J.Wagoner), 1ST DOWN
(06:33) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete deep middle to #5 C.Lacy caught at CAL26, for 40 yards to the CAL08 (#5 H.Masses), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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