Bucknell vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Bucknell

0013

Air Force

▸0049

Final

Falcon Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
BUCK	0	7	3	3	13
AF	14	14	14	7	49

BUCKTeam statsAF

266Total yards426

169Pass159

97Rush267

18First downs23

3-113rd down6-9

2Turnovers0

28:22Possession31:38

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:44BUCKMatt Schearer 39 Yd Field Goal 13–49
• Q4 6:24AFMaguire Martin 1 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)10–49
• Q3 5:49BUCKMatt Schearer 37 Yd Field Goal 10–42
• Q3 11:34AFCade Harris 8 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)7–42
• Q3 13:04AFKorey Johnson 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Medina Kick)7–35
• Q2 4:41AFCade Harris 62 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Jacob Medina Kick)7–28
• Q2 7:14AFDylan Carson 2 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)7–21
• Q2 12:54BUCKSam Milligan 12 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker IV (Matt Schearer Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:28AFCade Harris 9 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:22AFQuin Smith 40 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Jacob Medina Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

AF −30.5

Against the number

AF covered

line AF −30.5

What the numbers say

• BUCK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 3.7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

BUCK aheadAF ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = BUCK ahead, below = AF ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

AF −30.5

Closing total

54.0

Model line

—

Actual result

BUCK 13 – 49 AF

Leaders

Bucknell

• PassRalph Rucker IV 10/18, 126 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushTariq Thomas 18 CAR, 80 YDS
• RecSam Milligan 2 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD

Air Force

• PassJosh Johnson 4/7, 112 YDS, 2 TD
• RushCade Harris 8 CAR, 66 YDS, 2 TD
• RecCade Harris 3 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

122

Points / snap

0.51

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

AF up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

AF went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Western Carolina56-13WMontana State vs Utah Tech63-20WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WNC State vs VMI45-7

Fourth downs

11 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.BUCK 6/6 · AF 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Bucknell vs. Air Force?

Bucknell 13, Air Force 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

BUCK

AF

39%

Success rate

63%

0.19

EPA / pass

0.82

-0.08

EPA / rush

0.39

40%

Early-down success

62%

47%

Pass success

50%

30%

Rush success

66%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

17%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

52%

Pass rate

17%

7.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.7

BUCK

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

AF

3.7 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

BUCK		AF
266	Total yards	426
169	Passing yards	159
97	Rushing yards	267
18	First downs	23
3-11	3rd down	6-9
1-2	4th down	1-1
16/24	Comp/Att	6/9
7.0	Yards per pass	17.7
2.6	Yards per rush	5.2
2	Turnovers	0
6-50	Penalties	5-56
28:22	Possession	31:38

Fourth downs

11 calls

BUCK

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

AF

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

BUCK 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →AF 6/9 scoring drives

AFPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1

BUCKPUNT7 pl, 33 yds· own 11Q1

AFTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

BUCKPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 22Q1

AFTD5 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1

BUCKTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

AFTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

BUCKINT5 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q2

AFTD1 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2

BUCKPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

AFMISS13 pl, 47 yds· own 28Q2

BUCKEND3 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2

BUCKTD4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

BUCKPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3

AFTD1 pl, 8 yds· opp 8Q3

BUCKFG12 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q3

AFTD17 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

BUCKFG13 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q4

AFEND2 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:44BUCKMatt Schearer 39 Yd Field Goal 13–49
• Q4 6:24AFMaguire Martin 1 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)10–49
• Q3 5:49BUCKMatt Schearer 37 Yd Field Goal 10–42
• Q3 11:34AFCade Harris 8 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)7–42
• Q3 13:04AFKorey Johnson 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Medina Kick)7–35
• Q2 4:41AFCade Harris 62 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Jacob Medina Kick)7–28
• Q2 7:14AFDylan Carson 2 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)7–21
• Q2 12:54BUCKSam Milligan 12 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker IV (Matt Schearer Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:28AFCade Harris 9 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:22AFQuin Smith 40 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Jacob Medina Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →