| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUCK | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| AF | 14 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 49 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = BUCK ahead, below = AF ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
AF up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Bucknell 13, Air Force 49.
No — the model picked BUCK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BUCK pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Josh Johnson pass complete to Cade Harris for 62 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
Josh Johnson pass complete to Quin Smith for 40 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
Ralph Rucker IV pass intercepted Roger Jones Jr. return for 3 yds to the AF 38
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