Bryant vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Bryant

03

New Mexico State

▸0019

Final

Aggie Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
BRYA	3	0	0	0	3
NMSU	6	3	0	10	19

BRYATeam statsNMSU

255Total yards305

187Pass227

68Rush78

16First downs19

6-183rd down4-16

1Turnovers1

31:18Possession28:10

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:20NMSUKadarius Calloway 17 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)3–19
• Q4 12:10NMSURyan Hawk 27 Yd Field Goal 3–12
• Q2 13:33NMSURyan Hawk 41 Yd Field Goal 3–9
• Q1 4:08BRYABryce Soli 43 Yd Field Goal 3–6
• Q1 10:02NMSUPJ Johnson III 24 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk PAT blocked)0–6

How the model called it

Market line

NMSU −19.5

Against the number

BRYA covered

line NMSU −19.5

What the numbers say

• NMSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 30% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NMSU 100%50%BRYA 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NMSU (top)BRYA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NMSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NMSU −19.5

Closing total

53.0

Model line

—

Actual result

BRYA 3 – 19 NMSU

Leaders

Bryant

• PassBrennan Myer 20/33, 187 YDS, 1 INT
• RushDylan Kedzior 8 CAR, 28 YDS
• RecAldrich Doe 5 REC, 54 YDS

New Mexico State

• PassLogan Fife 14/31, 227 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushKadarius Calloway 12 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDonovan Faupel 5 REC, 99 YDS

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NMSU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

77%

NMSU went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WOklahoma State vs Central Arkansas27-13WGeorgia Southern vs UAB49-35WMissouri vs Middle Tennessee23-19WUC Davis vs Southern Utah23-21WTroy vs Western Kentucky27-24

Fourth downs

22 calls

NMSU gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.BRYA 9/11 · NMSU 9/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Bryant vs. New Mexico State?

Bryant 3, New Mexico State 19.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NMSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

BRYA

NMSU

25%

Success rate

30%

0.03

EPA / pass

0.23

-0.28

EPA / rush

-0.21

22%

Early-down success

28%

35%

Pass success

34%

13%

Rush success

24%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

35%

54%

Pass rate

55%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.9

BRYA

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

NMSU

8.9 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

BRYA		NMSU
255	Total yards	305
187	Passing yards	227
68	Rushing yards	78
16	First downs	19
6-18	3rd down	4-16
0-2	4th down	0-0
20/33	Comp/Att	14/31
5.7	Yards per pass	7.3
1.9	Yards per rush	2.4
1	Turnovers	1
11-99	Penalties	8-80
31:18	Possession	28:10

Fourth downs

22 calls

BRYA

9/11 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

NMSU

9/10 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 5:49 NMSU punt on 4th & 2 at NMSU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.

Every call, priced (22)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

BRYA 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →NMSU 4/14 scoring drives

NMSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 19Q1

BRYAPUNT3 pl, 18 yds· own 30Q1

NMSUTD6 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1

BRYAFG13 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q1

NMSUFG11 pl, 66 yds· own 10Q1

BRYAPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

NMSUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 23Q2

BRYAPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 38Q2

NMSUPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 23Q2

BRYAPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 3Q2

NMSUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· opp 38Q2

BRYAPUNT7 pl, 52 yds· own 2Q2

NMSUEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 10Q2

BRYAPUNT4 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

NMSUINT2 pl, 33 yds· own 27Q3

BRYAPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 41Q3

NMSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 22Q3

BRYADOWNS13 pl, 59 yds· own 30Q3

NMSUPUNT6 pl, 30 yds· own 11Q3

BRYAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 17Q3

NMSUFG9 pl, 55 yds· own 36Q4

BRYADOWNS7 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q4

NMSUTD6 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4

BRYAINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

NMSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 33Q4

BRYAPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 19Q4

NMSUEND3 pl, 3 yds· own 37Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:20NMSUKadarius Calloway 17 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)3–19
• Q4 12:10NMSURyan Hawk 27 Yd Field Goal 3–12
• Q2 13:33NMSURyan Hawk 41 Yd Field Goal 3–9
• Q1 4:08BRYABryce Soli 43 Yd Field Goal 3–6
• Q1 10:02NMSUPJ Johnson III 24 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk PAT blocked)0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →