| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| STAN | 6 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 30 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (STAN Elo 1260, BC Elo 1506) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +7.4 (29% to win) — 6.6 points of value on STAN versus the market line of +14.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: BC · 10 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- STAN pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. BC pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge BC.
- STAN rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. BC rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge BC.
- BC pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. STAN pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge STAN.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
STAN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Stanford?
Boston College 20, Stanford 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.