Bethune-Cookman vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Bethune-Cookman0-1

03

Miami1-0

▸0045

Final

Hard Rock Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
BETH	0	3	0	0	3
MIA	14	14	7	10	45

BETHTeam statsMIA

191Total yards543

99Pass344

92Rush199

14First downs31

1-113rd down4-6

2Turnovers0

31:55Possession28:05

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:56MIABert Auburn 31 Yd Field Goal 3–45
• Q4 13:52MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 30 Yd Run (Will Rocha Kick)3–42
• Q3 10:39MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)3–35
• Q2 0:38MIACJ Daniels 5 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Bert Auburn Kick)3–28
• Q2 3:08BETHJuan Dominguez 32 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q2 9:55MIACharMar Brown 2 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:34MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 16 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:16MIACJ Daniels 40 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MIA −54.5

Against the number

BETH covered

line MIA −54.5

What the numbers say

• BETH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 6.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MIA 100%50%BETH 100%

Kickoff127 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MIA (top)BETH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MIA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MIA −54.5

Closing total

64.5

Model line

—

Actual result

BETH 3 – 45 MIA

Leaders

Bethune-Cookman

• PassTimmy McClain 13/16, 86 YDS
• RushCam'Ron Ransom 5 CAR, 39 YDS
• RecJavon Ross 4 REC, 22 YDS

Miami

• PassCarson Beck 22/24, 267 YDS, 2 TD
• RushMark Fletcher Jr. 11 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
• RecMalachi Toney 6 REC, 80 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

31.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

115

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MIA up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MIA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Western Carolina56-13WMontana State vs Utah Tech63-20WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WNC State vs VMI45-7

Fourth downs

9 calls

BETH gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.BETH 4/6 · MIA 2/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Bethune-Cookman vs. Miami?

Bethune-Cookman 3, Miami 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

BETH

MIA

25%

Success rate

67%

-0.13

EPA / pass

0.42

-0.28

EPA / rush

0.57

29%

Early-down success

69%

39%

Pass success

62%

16%

Rush success

74%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

32%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

37%

Pass rate

59%

9.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

BETH

9.8 yards to go on 3rd down

49 scrimmage snaps

MIA

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

BETH		MIA
191	Total yards	543
99	Passing yards	344
92	Rushing yards	199
14	First downs	31
1-11	3rd down	4-6
0-1	4th down	0-1
14/18	Comp/Att	30/36
5.5	Yards per pass	9.6
2.8	Yards per rush	6.6
2	Turnovers	0
2-20	Penalties	4-50
31:55	Possession	28:05

Fourth downs

9 calls

BETH

4/6 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

MIA

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 8:07 BETH go for it on 4th & 6 at MIA 6. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

BETH 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →MIA 7/8 scoring drives

BETHPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q1

MIATD5 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q1

BETHPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1

MIATD9 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1

BETHPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

MIATD8 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2

BETHFG11 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q2

MIATD11 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q2

BETHEND2 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q2

MIATD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

BETHFUM10 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q3

MIADOWNS7 pl, 34 yds· own 34Q3

BETHPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 32Q3

MIATD5 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3

BETHINT9 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q4

MIAFG13 pl, 67 yds· own 20Q4

BETHEND3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:56MIABert Auburn 31 Yd Field Goal 3–45
• Q4 13:52MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 30 Yd Run (Will Rocha Kick)3–42
• Q3 10:39MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)3–35
• Q2 0:38MIACJ Daniels 5 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Bert Auburn Kick)3–28
• Q2 3:08BETHJuan Dominguez 32 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q2 9:55MIACharMar Brown 2 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:34MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 16 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:16MIACJ Daniels 40 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →