Boone Pickens StadiumConference gameClosing line: BAY +-21 · OKST covered
Sat, Sep 27, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 7 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 45 |
| OKST | 7 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OKST Elo 1176, BAY Elo 1587) plus home-field advantage. That projects OKST +14 (15% to win) — 7.0 points of value on OKST versus the market line of +21.
BAY up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Baylor 45, Oklahoma State 27.
Yes — the model's pick (BAY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BAY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Kobe Prentice 73 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)
Caden Knighten run for 49 yds to the OKST 6 for a 1ST down
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 35 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST down
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