Baylor vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsOKST
- Q4 6:31BAYSawyer Robertson 2 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)45–27
- Q4 14:49BAYConnor Hawkins 36 Yd Field Goal 38–27
- Q3 5:22OKSTTrent Howland 1 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)35–27
- Q3 14:10BAYKobe Prentice 73 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)35–20
- Q2 1:02OKSTLogan Ward 42 Yd Field Goal 28–20
- Q2 3:40BAYMichael Trigg 10 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)28–17
- Q2 8:12OKSTTrent Howland 10 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)21–17
- Q2 9:08BAYMatthew Klopfenstein 6 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)21–10
- Q2 11:31OKSTLogan Ward 39 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 14:53BAYBryson Washington 19 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:54OKSTJosh Ford 26 Yd pass from Sam Jackson V (Logan Ward Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:27BAYKole Wilson 34 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OKST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BAY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.2
- OKST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassSawyer Robertson 24/35, 393 YDS, 4 TD
- RushCaden Knighten 5 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecJosh Cameron 6 REC, 98 YDS
- PassZane Flores 23/41, 232 YDS
- RushTrent Howland 16 CAR, 84 YDS, 2 TD
- RecShamar Rigby 5 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 14:10BAY +6%
Kobe Prentice 73 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)
- Q3 8:42OKST +6%
Caden Knighten run for 4 yds to the OKST 46
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Oklahoma State?
Baylor 45, Oklahoma State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BAY) was correct.
| BAY | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 612 | Total yards | 448 |
| 393 | Passing yards | 291 |
| 219 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 29 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 24/35 | Comp/Att | 27/46 |
| 11.2 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-60 | Penalties | 8-100 |
| 31:52 | Possession | 28:08 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:31BAYSawyer Robertson 2 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)45–27
- Q4 14:49BAYConnor Hawkins 36 Yd Field Goal 38–27
- Q3 5:22OKSTTrent Howland 1 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)35–27
- Q3 14:10BAYKobe Prentice 73 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)35–20
- Q2 1:02OKSTLogan Ward 42 Yd Field Goal 28–20
- Q2 3:40BAYMichael Trigg 10 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)28–17
- Q2 8:12OKSTTrent Howland 10 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)21–17
- Q2 9:08BAYMatthew Klopfenstein 6 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)21–10
- Q2 11:31OKSTLogan Ward 39 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 14:53BAYBryson Washington 19 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:54OKSTJosh Ford 26 Yd pass from Sam Jackson V (Logan Ward Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:27BAYKole Wilson 34 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1176, BAY Elo 1587 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +14 (19% to win) — 7.0 points clear of OKST's market line of +21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma State leads 23–21 · Baylor has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| BAY | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#54) | CORE overall | -22.9 (#130) |
| +6 / +0 | offense / defense | -12 / +11 |
| 2.31 | points / drive | 1.02 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.92 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →