| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 0 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 25 |
| CONN | 10 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CONN Elo 1445, BALL Elo 1086) plus home-field advantage. That projects CONN -16.8 (89% to win) — 4.2 points of value on BALL versus the market line of -21.
CONN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ball State 25, UConn 31.
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CONN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Cam Edwards run for 67 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
Cam Edwards run for 32 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 33 yds to the BALL 1 for a 1ST down
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