Ball State vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsCONN
- Q4 0:09BALLDahya Patel 11 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Koby Gross Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)25–31
- Q4 1:50CONNCam Edwards 67 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)17–31
- Q4 3:28BALLQua Ashley 1 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)17–24
- Q4 10:24CONNCam Edwards 32 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)10–24
- Q3 0:37BALLCarson Holmer 23 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q3 6:04CONNTerrence Smith 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:53BALLKiael Kelly 19 Yd pass from Qian Magwood (Carson Holmer Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:30CONNSkyler Bell 2 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:48CONNChris Freeman 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassKiael Kelly 17/24, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushQua Ashley 18 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Hamilton 7 REC, 61 YDS
- PassJoe Fagnano 20/30, 181 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCam Edwards 24 CAR, 194 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSkyler Bell 14 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:04CONN +11%
Terrence Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
- Q1 13:08BALL +8%
Connor Stutz punt for 48 yds
- Q3 0:37BALL +7%
Carson Holmer 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 10:24CONN +5%
Cam Edwards run for 32 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. UConn?
Ball State 25, UConn 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
| BALL | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 404 | Total yards | 400 |
| 228 | Passing yards | 181 |
| 176 | Rushing yards | 219 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 5-5 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 20/30 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-32 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 27:44 | Possession | 32:16 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:19 CONN punt on 4th & 3 at BALL 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:09BALLDahya Patel 11 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Koby Gross Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)25–31
- Q4 1:50CONNCam Edwards 67 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)17–31
- Q4 3:28BALLQua Ashley 1 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)17–24
- Q4 10:24CONNCam Edwards 32 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)10–24
- Q3 0:37BALLCarson Holmer 23 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q3 6:04CONNTerrence Smith 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:53BALLKiael Kelly 19 Yd pass from Qian Magwood (Carson Holmer Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:30CONNSkyler Bell 2 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:48CONNChris Freeman 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CONN Elo 1445, BALL Elo 1086 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CONN -16.8 (86% to win) — 4.2 points clear of BALL's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BALL | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| -27.9 (#133) | CORE overall | -7.6 (#89) |
| -22 / +6 | offense / defense | +5 / +13 |
| 1.14 | points / drive | 3.14 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →