Austin Peay vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Austin Peay1-0

06

Georgia1-0

▸0028

Final

Sanford Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
AUST	0	3	3	0	6
UGA	7	7	7	7	28

AUSTTeam statsUGA

196Total yards421

151Pass231

45Rush190

10First downs26

3-133rd down7-13

1Turnovers2

26:51Possession33:09

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:39UGANate Frazier 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)6–28
• Q3 5:51AUSTCarson Smith 43 Yd Field Goal 6–21
• Q3 10:54UGAChauncey Bowens 14 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)3–21
• Q2 9:08AUSTCarson Smith 44 Yd Field Goal 3–14
• Q2 13:50UGANate Frazier 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–14
• Q1 5:55UGAChauncey Bowens 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UGA −46.5

Against the number

AUST covered

line UGA −46.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UGA 100%50%AUST 100%

Kickoff145 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UGA (top)AUST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UGA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UGA −46.5

Closing total

56.0

Model line

—

Actual result

AUST 6 – 28 UGA

Leaders

Austin Peay

• PassChris Parson 16/23, 151 YDS, 1 INT
• RushCorey Richardson 7 CAR, 33 YDS
• RecKamari Maxwell 3 REC, 41 YDS

Georgia

• PassGunner Stockton 26/34, 227 YDS
• RushNate Frazier 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TD
• RecColbie Young 7 REC, 76 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.26

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UGA up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

95%

UGA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Kent State28-6WFlorida State vs Boston College31-29WSouth Dakota vs Lamar35-6WFlorida State vs Virginia Tech39-17WMissouri vs South Carolina34-12

Fourth downs

14 calls

AUST gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.AUST 8/9 · UGA 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Austin Peay vs. Georgia?

Austin Peay 6, Georgia 28.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

AUST

UGA

35%

Success rate

60%

-0.13

EPA / pass

0.38

-0.22

EPA / rush

0.20

38%

Early-down success

60%

42%

Pass success

63%

27%

Rush success

56%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

23%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

50%

Pass rate

48%

5.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.6

AUST

5.5 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

UGA

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

AUST		UGA
196	Total yards	421
151	Passing yards	231
45	Rushing yards	190
10	First downs	26
3-13	3rd down	7-13
1-2	4th down	0-0
16/23	Comp/Att	27/36
6.6	Yards per pass	6.4
1.6	Yards per rush	4.8
1	Turnovers	2
3-10	Penalties	3-24
26:51	Possession	33:09

Fourth downs

14 calls

AUST

8/9 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

UGA

2/3 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 11:11 AUST punt on 4th & 3 at UGA 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

AUST 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →UGA 4/11 scoring drives

UGAFUM4 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q1

AUSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 47Q1

UGATD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

AUSTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1

UGATD9 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q1

AUSTFG8 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q2

UGAPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2

AUSTINT4 pl, 10 yds· own 24Q2

UGAPUNT5 pl, 1 yds· opp 39Q2

AUSTPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 4Q2

UGAEND10 pl, 53 yds· own 45Q2

AUSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

UGATD7 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

AUSTPUNT4 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q3

UGAFUM5 pl, 26 yds· own 5Q3

AUSTFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 31Q3

UGAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q3

AUSTDOWNS12 pl, 63 yds· own 36Q3

UGATD17 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q4

AUSTPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q4

UGAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q4

AUSTEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:39UGANate Frazier 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)6–28
• Q3 5:51AUSTCarson Smith 43 Yd Field Goal 6–21
• Q3 10:54UGAChauncey Bowens 14 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)3–21
• Q2 9:08AUSTCarson Smith 44 Yd Field Goal 3–14
• Q2 13:50UGANate Frazier 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–14
• Q1 5:55UGAChauncey Bowens 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →