Auburn vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUBTeam statsVAN
- OT 0:00VANCole Spence 4 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)38–45
- Q4 5:27AUBCam Coleman 23 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Ashton Daniels Pass to Cam Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)38–38
- Q4 7:57VANSedrick Alexander 9 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)30–38
- Q4 14:07VANDiego Pavia 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)30–31
- Q3 1:11AUBAshton Daniels 16 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)30–24
- Q3 7:37VANTre Richardson 57 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)23–24
- Q3 9:15AUBAlex McPherson 38 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q3 11:24VANSedrick Alexander 4 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)20–17
- Q2 0:00AUBAlex McPherson 47 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q2 1:15VANJunior Sherrill 20 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)17–10
- Q2 1:52AUBAlex McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 10:44AUBAshton Daniels 11 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)14–3
- Q2 13:30VANBrock Taylor 23 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 5:45AUBEric Singleton Jr. 14 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Alex McPherson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AUB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VAN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassAshton Daniels 31/44, 353 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeremiah Cobb 16 CAR, 115 YDS
- RecCam Coleman 10 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDiego Pavia 25/33, 377 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDiego Pavia 18 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre Richardson 3 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUB up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00VAN +58%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #0 J.Sherrill caught at AUBURN14, for 21 yards to the AUBURN04 (#8 K.Harris; #5 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:48AUB +57%
PENALTY AUBURN False Start (#72 I.Miller) 5 yards from AUBURN35 to AUBURN30. NO PLAY
- Q4 5:27AUB +49%
Cam Coleman 23 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Ashton Daniels Pass to Cam Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 14:07VAN +34%
Diego Pavia 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)
- OT 0:00VAN +32%
Cole Spence 4 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
- Q3 1:11AUB +32%
Ashton Daniels 16 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Vanderbilt?
Auburn 38, Vanderbilt 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
| AUB | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 563 | Total yards | 544 |
| 353 | Passing yards | 377 |
| 210 | Rushing yards | 167 |
| 34 | First downs | 30 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 31/46 | Comp/Att | 25/33 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-91 | Penalties | 3-21 |
| 29:00 | Possession | 31:00 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:30 VAN field goal on 4th & 5 at AUB 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00VANCole Spence 4 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)38–45
- Q4 5:27AUBCam Coleman 23 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Ashton Daniels Pass to Cam Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)38–38
- Q4 7:57VANSedrick Alexander 9 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)30–38
- Q4 14:07VANDiego Pavia 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)30–31
- Q3 1:11AUBAshton Daniels 16 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)30–24
- Q3 7:37VANTre Richardson 57 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)23–24
- Q3 9:15AUBAlex McPherson 38 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q3 11:24VANSedrick Alexander 4 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)20–17
- Q2 0:00AUBAlex McPherson 47 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q2 1:15VANJunior Sherrill 20 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)17–10
- Q2 1:52AUBAlex McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 10:44AUBAshton Daniels 11 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)14–3
- Q2 13:30VANBrock Taylor 23 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 5:45AUBEric Singleton Jr. 14 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Alex McPherson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1766, AUB Elo 1665 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -6.4 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAuburn leads 21–20–1 · Vanderbilt has won 2 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| AUB | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.6 (#30) | CORE overall | +25.4 (#8) |
| +2 / -12 | offense / defense | +28 / +2 |
| 2.05 | points / drive | 3.85 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →