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Auburn vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 8, 9:00 PM
FirstBank StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 7 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 38 |
| VAN | 0 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 45 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
VAN 1766
AUB 1665
Projected spread
VAN -6.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
VAN
68% to win
Market spread
VAN -6
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
68%
VAN · market 68%
Our model blends Elo ratings (VAN Elo 1766, AUB Elo 1665) plus home-field advantage. That projects VAN -6.4 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
VAN (top)AUB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VAN 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
AUB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedVAN
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.4443%
Success rate
52%1.14
Explosiveness
1.393.90
Pts / opportunity
5.0080%
Power success
76%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.2038%
Success rate allowed
42%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.3117%
Havoc rate
17%26%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- VAN rush offense (0.35 PPA) vs. AUB rush defense (-0.11 allowed) — edge VAN.
- VAN pass offense (0.55 PPA) vs. AUB pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge VAN.
- AUB pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. VAN pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge VAN.
Drive-by-drive
AUB 7/12 scoring drives← own end zone →VAN 7/11 scoring drives
VANPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1
AUBTD13 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1
VANFG13 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q1
AUBTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
VANFUM7 pl, 44 yds· own 21Q2
AUBFG10 pl, 57 yds· own 35Q2
VANTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
AUBFG10 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q2
AUBPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3
VANTD6 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3
AUBFG8 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q3
VANTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
AUBPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3
VANPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 15Q3
AUBTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
VANTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
AUBPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4
VANTD10 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q4
AUBTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
VANDOWNS11 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q4
AUBEND7 pl, 29 yds· own 28Q4
AUBDOWNS6 pl, 13 yds· opp 25OT
VANTD3 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
AUB up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
AUB went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Vanderbilt?
Auburn 38, Vanderbilt 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had VAN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.