| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| TA&M | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TA&M Elo 1749, AUB Elo 1680) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -5.2 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TA&M up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Auburn 10, Texas A&M 16.
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Marcel Reed pass complete to Amari Niblack for 23 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST down
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 17 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST down
Marcel Reed sacked by Chris Murray for a loss of 15 yards to the AUB 49 Texas A&M Penalty, intentional grounding (Marcel Reed) to the AUB 49
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