Arkansas
2-7·SEC· Elo 1594
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 14 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| LSU | 0 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LSU Elo 1695, ARK Elo 1594) plus home-field advantage. That projects LSU -6.4 (68% to win) — 2.4 points of value on LSU versus the market line of -4.
ARK up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arkansas 22, LSU 23.
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Caleb Wooden 16 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Scott Starzyk Kick)
(00:37) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass intercepted by #4 M.Delane at LSU00, Touchback
(08:58) #10 T.Green rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU01 (#90 J.Guillory; #33 W.Weeks), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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