Arkansas vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsLSU
- Q4 7:53LSUBauer Sharp 12 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)22–23
- Q3 4:02ARKMike Washington Jr. 9 Yd Run (Taylen Green Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–16
- Q2 0:03LSUDamian Ramos 42 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 5:08LSUDamian Ramos 42 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 7:02LSUDamian Ramos 50 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 14:54LSUCaden Durham 27 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:06ARKTaylen Green 11 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:58ARKCaleb Wooden 16 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARK lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassTaylen Green 11/19, 165 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMike Washington Jr. 12 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRaylen Sharpe 4 REC, 65 YDS
- PassMichael Van Buren Jr. 21/31, 221 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCaden Durham 12 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZavion Thomas 6 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:53LSU +44%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #10 B.Sharp caught at ARK00, for 12 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:02ARK +34%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 9 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN #10 T.Green rush attempt Successful
- Q4 5:08LSU +23%
PENALTY LSU False Start (#10 B.Sharp) 5 yards from LSU30 to LSU25. NO PLAY
- Q4 14:10ARK +23%
#37 D.Bale punt 44 yards to the LSU08 fair catch by #0 Z.Thomas at LSU08
- Q4 4:50ARK +22%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #8 J.Johnson caught at LSU24, for 1 yard loss to the LSU24 (#10 X.Sorey; #97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)
- Q4 5:08ARK +20%
#80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. LSU?
Arkansas 22, LSU 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| ARK | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total yards | 390 |
| 165 | Passing yards | 235 |
| 175 | Rushing yards | 155 |
| 16 | First downs | 21 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 11/19 | Comp/Att | 22/33 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 7-57 |
| 25:15 | Possession | 34:45 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:56 LSU punt on 4th & 11 at ARK 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:53LSUBauer Sharp 12 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)22–23
- Q3 4:02ARKMike Washington Jr. 9 Yd Run (Taylen Green Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–16
- Q2 0:03LSUDamian Ramos 42 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 5:08LSUDamian Ramos 42 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 7:02LSUDamian Ramos 50 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 14:54LSUCaden Durham 27 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:06ARKTaylen Green 11 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:58ARKCaleb Wooden 16 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1695, ARK Elo 1594 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -6.4 (68% to win) — 2.4 points clear of LSU's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLSU leads 45–23–2 · LSU has won 4 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| ARK | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.7 (#37) | CORE overall | +8.1 (#45) |
| +20 / +9 | offense / defense | -3 / -11 |
| 2.72 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 3.48 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →