Arizona vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsCOLO
- Q4 2:04COLOAlejandro Mata 31 Yd Field Goal 52–17
- Q3 9:11ARIZKedrick Reescano 1 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)52–14
- Q3 10:13COLOOmarion Miller 59 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Alejandro Mata Kick)45–14
- Q3 12:06ARIZIsmail Mahdi 7 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)45–7
- Q2 0:21ARIZJavin Whatley 34 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)38–7
- Q2 4:53ARIZJavin Whatley 13 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)31–7
- Q2 12:38ARIZGio Richardson 60 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)24–7
- Q2 14:28COLOOmarion Miller 8 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)17–7
- Q1 7:08ARIZKris Hutson 12 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–0
- Q1 7:56ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 49 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 13:53ARIZTre Spivey 57 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- COLO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARIZ did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassNoah Fifita 11/19, 213 YDS, 4 TD
- RushIsmail Mahdi 4 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGiovanni Richardson 2 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJulian Lewis 9/17, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDallan Hayden 9 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecOmarion Miller 5 REC, 91 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:53ARIZ +18%
Tre Spivey 57 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- Q1 7:08ARIZ +15%
Kris Hutson 12 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- Q2 12:38ARIZ +15%
Gio Richardson 60 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- Q2 14:28COLO +14%
PENALTY COLO Delay Of Game 5 yards from ARIZ03 to ARIZ08. NO PLAY
- Q1 7:56ARIZ +9%
Michael Salgado-Medina 49 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 4:53ARIZ +7%
Javin Whatley 13 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Colorado?
Arizona 52, Colorado 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARIZ | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 417 | Total yards | 299 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 170 |
| 204 | Rushing yards | 129 |
| 16 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 11/25 | Comp/Att | 20/35 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 14-110 |
| 25:51 | Possession | 34:09 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:54 ARIZ punt on 4th & 9 at COLO 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:04COLOAlejandro Mata 31 Yd Field Goal 52–17
- Q3 9:11ARIZKedrick Reescano 1 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)52–14
- Q3 10:13COLOOmarion Miller 59 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Alejandro Mata Kick)45–14
- Q3 12:06ARIZIsmail Mahdi 7 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)45–7
- Q2 0:21ARIZJavin Whatley 34 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)38–7
- Q2 4:53ARIZJavin Whatley 13 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)31–7
- Q2 12:38ARIZGio Richardson 60 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)24–7
- Q2 14:28COLOOmarion Miller 8 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)17–7
- Q1 7:08ARIZKris Hutson 12 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–0
- Q1 7:56ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 49 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 13:53ARIZTre Spivey 57 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1495, ARIZ Elo 1472 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO -3.3 (60% to win) — 6.8 points clear of COLO's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado leads 17–11 · 32% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.4 (#33) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#101) |
| +5 / -8 | offense / defense | -5 / +7 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 1.79 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →