| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 17 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 52 |
| COLO | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (COLO Elo 1495, ARIZ Elo 1472) plus home-field advantage. That projects COLO -3.3 (60% to win) — 6.8 points of value on COLO versus the market line of +3.5.
ARIZ up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arizona 52, Colorado 17.
No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had COLO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Omarion Miller 59 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Alejandro Mata Kick)
Gio Richardson 60 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
Javin Whatley 34 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
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