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Arizona vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 15, 5:00 PM
Nippert StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 30 |
| CIN | 14 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CIN 1590
ARIZ 1580
Projected spread
CIN -2.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
CIN
58% to win
Market spread
CIN -6
sportsbook line
Model edge
ARIZ
3.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
58%
CIN · market 65%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1590, ARIZ Elo 1580) plus home-field advantage. That projects CIN -2.8 (58% to win) — 3.2 points of value on ARIZ versus the market line of -6.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CIN (top)ARIZ (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ARIZ2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCIN
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.2943%
Success rate
46%1.29
Explosiveness
1.313.61
Pts / opportunity
4.6074%
Power success
76%Defense
0.10
PPA allowed / play
0.2139%
Success rate allowed
45%1.20
Explosiveness allowed
1.1720%
Havoc rate
12%18%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- CIN pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. ARIZ pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge CIN.
- CIN rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. ARIZ rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge CIN.
- ARIZ pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. CIN pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge CIN.
Drive-by-drive
ARIZ 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 4/11 scoring drives
CININT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
ARIZTD2 pl, 26 yds· opp 26Q1
CINTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ARIZPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
CINTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
ARIZMISS7 pl, 46 yds· own 32Q1
CINPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 22Q1
ARIZMISS9 pl, 34 yds· midfieldQ1
CINPUNT8 pl, 25 yds· own 20Q2
ARIZPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 20Q2
CININT3 pl, 3 yds· own 27Q2
ARIZFG11 pl, 58 yds· own 36Q2
CINEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
ARIZFG11 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q3
CINPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZTD6 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q3
CINFG12 pl, 66 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
CINTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
ARIZFG11 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q4
CINDOWNS4 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4
ARIZEND2 pl, -2 yds· opp 21Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARIZ up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
ARIZ went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Cincinnati?
Arizona 30, Cincinnati 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had CIN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.