Arizona vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsCIN
- Q4 1:34ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 51 Yd Field Goal 30–24
- Q4 6:38CINZion Johnson 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)27–24
- Q4 10:53ARIZGio Richardson 15 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)27–17
- Q3 0:00CINStephen Rusnak 28 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 5:20ARIZKedrick Reescano 50 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)20–14
- Q3 9:42ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 25 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 0:04ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 24 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 6:34CINJeff Caldwell 7 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:07CINBrendan Sorsby 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:03ARIZIsmail Mahdi 27 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassNoah Fifita 23/31, 294 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKedrick Reescano 13 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKris Hutson 8 REC, 123 YDS
- PassBrendan Sorsby 15/28, 154 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTawee Walker 12 CAR, 119 YDS
- RecJeff Caldwell 5 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:38CIN +34%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARZ00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:20ARIZ +28%
Kedrick Reescano 50 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- Q4 10:53ARIZ +24%
Gio Richardson 15 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- Q4 5:56ARIZ +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short middle to #4 K.Hutson thrown to ARZ45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#5 C.Harrison) 11 yard from ARZ28 t…
- Q3 0:00CIN +19%
Stephen Rusnak 28 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 11:07CIN +18%
Brendan Sorsby 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Cincinnati?
Arizona 30, Cincinnati 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARIZ | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 475 | Total yards | 344 |
| 294 | Passing yards | 154 |
| 181 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 24 | First downs | 14 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 23/31 | Comp/Att | 15/28 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 5-58 |
| 36:41 | Possession | 23:19 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:04 ARIZ field goal on 4th & 1 at CIN 6. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:34ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 51 Yd Field Goal 30–24
- Q4 6:38CINZion Johnson 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)27–24
- Q4 10:53ARIZGio Richardson 15 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)27–17
- Q3 0:00CINStephen Rusnak 28 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 5:20ARIZKedrick Reescano 50 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)20–14
- Q3 9:42ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 25 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 0:04ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 24 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 6:34CINJeff Caldwell 7 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:07CINBrendan Sorsby 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:03ARIZIsmail Mahdi 27 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1590, ARIZ Elo 1580 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -2.8 (59% to win) — 3.2 points clear of ARIZ's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#90 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #70 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #37 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| ARIZ | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.4 (#33) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#50) |
| +5 / -8 | offense / defense | +12 / +5 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →