| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 14 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 39 |
| DUKE | 14 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DUKE Elo 1616, ASU Elo 1615) on a neutral field. That projects DUKE PK (50% to win) — 3.5 points of value on ASU versus the market line of -3.5.
DUKE up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arizona State 39, Duke 42.
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had DUKE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep middle to #7 Q.Brown caught at ASU35, for 69 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:53, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)
Shotgun #22 J.Brown Jr. rush middle for 45 yards loss to the ASU32 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)
End of 3rd quarter.
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