Arizona State vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 2:10DUKED. Mensah pass to Q. Brown for 17 yds, for a TD (T. Pelino KICK)39–42
- Q4 12:31ASUMalik McClain 6 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)39–35
- Q3 4:09ASUKhamari Anderson 8 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jeff Sims Run for Two-Point Conversion)32–35
- Q3 5:20DUKENate Sheppard 3 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)24–35
- Q2 0:32ASUJesus Gomez 54 Yd Field Goal 24–28
- Q2 1:50DUKEAnderson Castle 3 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)21–28
- Q2 3:49ASUJeff Sims 38 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)21–21
- Q2 6:06DUKEJeremiah Hasley 14 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–21
- Q1 5:05ASUJalen Moss 44 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:43DUKECooper Barkate 3 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:53DUKEQue'Sean Brown 69 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:11ASUJeff Sims 4 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJeff Sims 27/38, 375 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJason Brown Jr. 13 CAR, 134 YDS
- RecJalen Moss 5 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDarian Mensah 29/51, 327 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushNate Sheppard 22 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD
- RecQue'Sean Brown 10 REC, 178 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Duke?
Arizona State 39, Duke 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
| ASU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 619 | Total yards | 539 |
| 375 | Passing yards | 327 |
| 244 | Rushing yards | 212 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 27/38 | Comp/Att | 29/51 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-33 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 26:33 | Possession | 33:27 |
- Q4 2:10DUKED. Mensah pass to Q. Brown for 17 yds, for a TD (T. Pelino KICK)39–42
- Q4 12:31ASUMalik McClain 6 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)39–35
- Q3 4:09ASUKhamari Anderson 8 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jeff Sims Run for Two-Point Conversion)32–35
- Q3 5:20DUKENate Sheppard 3 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)24–35
- Q2 0:32ASUJesus Gomez 54 Yd Field Goal 24–28
- Q2 1:50DUKEAnderson Castle 3 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)21–28
- Q2 3:49ASUJeff Sims 38 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)21–21
- Q2 6:06DUKEJeremiah Hasley 14 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–21
- Q1 5:05ASUJalen Moss 44 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:43DUKECooper Barkate 3 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:53DUKEQue'Sean Brown 69 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:11ASUJeff Sims 4 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1616, ASU Elo 1615 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects DUKE PK (51% to win) — 3.5 points clear of ASU's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#124 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #11 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| ASU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.2 (#44) | CORE overall | +2.4 (#60) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | +9 / +7 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 3.04 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →