| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 0 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 34 |
| OU | 10 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OU Elo 1823, ALA Elo 1917) plus home-field advantage. That projects OU +1.4 (46% to win) — 3.4 points of value on ALA versus the market line of -2.
ALA up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Alabama 34, Oklahoma 24.
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ALA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #2 Z.Brown at UA50 #2 Z.Brown return 50 yards to the OU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:18 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)
(04:24) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep left to #11 J.Gibson caught at UA37, for 38 yards to the UA19 (#7 D.Jones), 1ST DOWN
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete deep right to #1 I.Horton caught at OU39, for 37 yards to the OU37 (#23 E.Bowen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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