Alabama vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsOU
- Q4 7:24ALADaniel Hill 6 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)34–24
- Q4 14:45OUDeion Burks 37 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)27–24
- Q3 4:30ALAConor Talty 40 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 11:21ALALotzeir Brooks 30 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)24–17
- Q2 1:18ALAZabien Brown 50 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)17–17
- Q2 2:08ALAConor Talty 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 6:52ALALotzeir Brooks 10 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:51OUIsaiah Sategna III 7 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–17
- Q1 0:45OUTate Sandell 51 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 5:29OUJohn Mateer 8 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTy Simpson 18/29, 232 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDaniel Hill 9 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLotzeir Brooks 5 REC, 79 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJohn Mateer 26/41, 307 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTory Blaylock 11 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecDeion Burks 7 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Oklahoma?
Alabama 34, Oklahoma 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| ALA | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 362 |
| 232 | Passing yards | 307 |
| 28 | Rushing yards | 55 |
| 12 | First downs | 18 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/29 | Comp/Att | 26/42 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-46 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 26:52 | Possession | 33:08 |
- Q4 7:24ALADaniel Hill 6 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)34–24
- Q4 14:45OUDeion Burks 37 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)27–24
- Q3 4:30ALAConor Talty 40 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 11:21ALALotzeir Brooks 30 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)24–17
- Q2 1:18ALAZabien Brown 50 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)17–17
- Q2 2:08ALAConor Talty 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 6:52ALALotzeir Brooks 10 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:51OUIsaiah Sategna III 7 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–17
- Q1 0:45OUTate Sandell 51 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 5:29OUJohn Mateer 8 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1823, ALA Elo 1917 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU +1.4 (48% to win) — 3.4 points clear of ALA's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma leads 5–3–1 · 33% have been one-possession games
| ALA | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#14) | CORE overall | +17.8 (#21) |
| +7 / -13 | offense / defense | -2 / -19 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 1.22 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →