Alabama vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsUGA
- Q3 6:30UGAJosh McCray 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–21
- Q2 0:34ALATy Simpson 2 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:08UGAChauncey Bowens 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:30ALAConor Talty 24 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 12:48UGAColbie Young 38 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:01ALAIsaiah Horton 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:41ALAGermie Bernard 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTy Simpson 24/38, 276 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJam Miller 16 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecIsaiah Horton 5 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGunner Stockton 13/20, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- RushChauncey Bowens 12 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- RecColbie Young 4 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:11UGA +58%
Brett Thorson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 26
- Q4 1:29ALA +34%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
- Q3 6:30UGA +27%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
- Q2 0:34ALA +23%
Ty Simpson run for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
- Q4 9:31ALA +18%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Geno VanDeMark) to the UGA 48
- Q3 2:30ALA +11%
Blake Doud punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 46
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Georgia?
Alabama 24, Georgia 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UGA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ALA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 397 | Total yards | 357 |
| 280 | Passing yards | 130 |
| 117 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 25 | First downs | 17 |
| 13-19 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/39 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-16 | Penalties | 6-68 |
| 35:36 | Possession | 24:24 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:10 ALA punt on 4th & 7 at UGA 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 6:30UGAJosh McCray 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–21
- Q2 0:34ALATy Simpson 2 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:08UGAChauncey Bowens 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:30ALAConor Talty 24 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 12:48UGAColbie Young 38 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:01ALAIsaiah Horton 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:41ALAGermie Bernard 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 2043, ALA Elo 1948 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UGA -6.2 (67% to win) — 3.7 points clear of UGA's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#111 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #103 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #28 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Alabama leads 45–26–3 · 39% have been one-possession games
| ALA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#14) | CORE overall | +20.0 (#15) |
| +7 / -13 | offense / defense | +9 / -11 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 3.08 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →