Alabama vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 27, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| UGA | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (UGA Elo 2043, ALA Elo 1948) plus home-field advantage. That projects UGA -6.2 (68% to win) — 3.7 points of value on UGA versus the market line of -2.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: UGA · 11 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Defense
Key matchups · Pro
- UGA pass offense (0.36 PPA) vs. ALA pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge UGA.
- ALA pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. UGA pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge ALA.
- UGA rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. ALA rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge UGA.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ALA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Georgia?
Alabama 24, Georgia 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UGA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
I had UGA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.