Alabama vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsAUB
- Q4 3:50ALAIsaiah Horton 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)27–20
- Q4 11:43AUBJeremiah Cobb 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)20–20
- Q3 7:31ALAConor Talty 29 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q3 14:00AUBMalcolm Simmons 64 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Alex McPherson Kick)17–13
- Q2 0:00AUBAlex McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q2 4:06AUBAlex McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 11:28ALAIsaiah Horton 3 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)17–0
- Q1 1:14ALAIsaiah Horton 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)10–0
- Q1 7:29ALAConor Talty 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTy Simpson 19/35, 122 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJam Miller 15 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecIsaiah Horton 5 REC, 35 YDS, 3 TD
- PassAshton Daniels 18/39, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAshton Daniels 23 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecMalcolm Simmons 3 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:43AUB +32%
Jeremiah Cobb 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)
- Q4 3:50ALA +29%
Isaiah Horton 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)
- Q3 14:00AUB +15%
Malcolm Simmons 64 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Alex McPherson Kick)
- Q4 10:26ALA +14%
Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #17 L.Brooks thrown to ALA45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AUB Pass Interference (#19 S.Smith) 10 yards from ALA31 to ALA41,…
- Q3 5:31AUB +11%
#38 B.Doud punt 36 yards to the AUB21 fair catch by #4 M.Simmons at AUB21
- Q3 7:31ALA +8%
Conor Talty 29 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Auburn?
Alabama 27, Auburn 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| ALA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total yards | 411 |
| 122 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/35 | Comp/Att | 18/39 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-87 | Penalties | 10-84 |
| 34:29 | Possession | 25:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 AUB field goal on 4th & 2 at ALA 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:50ALAIsaiah Horton 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)27–20
- Q4 11:43AUBJeremiah Cobb 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)20–20
- Q3 7:31ALAConor Talty 29 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q3 14:00AUBMalcolm Simmons 64 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Alex McPherson Kick)17–13
- Q2 0:00AUBAlex McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q2 4:06AUBAlex McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 11:28ALAIsaiah Horton 3 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)17–0
- Q1 1:14ALAIsaiah Horton 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)10–0
- Q1 7:29ALAConor Talty 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1661, ALA Elo 1964 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB +9.7 (27% to win) — 2.7 points clear of ALA's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 51–32–1 · Alabama has won 6 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| ALA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#14) | CORE overall | +13.6 (#30) |
| +7 / -13 | offense / defense | +2 / -12 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →