Alabama State vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Alabama State

0042

UAB

▸0052

Final

Protective Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ALAB	7	14	7	14	42
UAB	10	7	21	14	52

ALABTeam statsUAB

514Total yards520

312Pass247

202Rush273

26First downs24

13-153rd down4-7

1Turnovers0

34:14Possession25:46

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:19UABSolomon Beebe 7 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)42–52
• Q4 4:18ALABJalen Jones 69 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)42–45
• Q4 8:21UABIsaiah Jacobs 5 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)35–45
• Q4 13:09ALABJamarie Hostzclaw 7 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)35–38
• Q3 1:42UABJevon Jackson 46 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)28–38
• Q3 4:10UABSolomon Beebe 5 Yd Run (Jevon Jackson Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
• Q3 7:45UABJevon Jackson 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)28–23
• Q3 10:10ALABAsa Gregg 5 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)28–17
• Q2 0:05ALABAjai Harrell 31 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)21–17
• Q2 14:02UABCorri Milliner 49 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)14–17
• Q2 14:56ALABDylan Djete 14 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)14–10
• Q1 6:23UABIverson Hooks 8 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–10
• Q1 10:57ALABAndrew Body 60 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)7–3
• Q1 11:39UABJonah Delange 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

UAB −21

Against the number

ALAB covered

line UAB −21

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ALAB aheadUAB ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ALAB ahead, below = UAB ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UAB −21

Closing total

53.5

Model line

—

Actual result

ALAB 42 – 52 UAB

Leaders

Alabama State

• PassAndrew Body 18/24, 312 YDS, 4 TD
• RushAndrew Body 16 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJalen Jones 6 REC, 174 YDS, 1 TD

UAB

• PassJalen Kitna 18/23, 247 YDS, 2 TD
• RushJevon Jackson 17 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD
• RecCorri Milliner 5 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

130

Points / snap

0.72

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UAB up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

UAB went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs UTEP17-14WMichigan State vs Central Michigan31-7LTexas Southern vs Prairie View A&M34-37WHouston vs UTSA17-14WChattanooga vs Kennesaw State27-20

Fourth downs

5 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.ALAB 2/2 · UAB 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Alabama State vs. UAB?

Alabama State 42, UAB 52.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UAB) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ALAB

UAB

56%

Success rate

65%

1.08

EPA / pass

0.65

0.18

EPA / rush

0.49

46%

Early-down success

67%

50%

Pass success

63%

60%

Rush success

67%

17%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

15%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

43%

Pass rate

40%

6.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.9

ALAB

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

UAB

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ALAB		UAB
514	Total yards	520
312	Passing yards	247
202	Rushing yards	273
26	First downs	24
13-15	3rd down	4-7
0-0	4th down	1-2
18/24	Comp/Att	18/23
13.0	Yards per pass	10.7
4.9	Yards per rush	7.8
1	Turnovers	0
7-44	Penalties	5-40
34:14	Possession	25:46

Fourth downs

5 calls

ALAB

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

UAB

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (5)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ALAB 6/10 scoring drives← own end zone →UAB 8/9 scoring drives

UABFG8 pl, 39 yds· own 38Q1

ALABTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

UABTD11 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1

ALABTD10 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1

UABTD3 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2

ALABPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

UABDOWNS8 pl, 49 yds· own 48Q2

ALABTD16 pl, 96 yds· own 3Q2

ALABTD10 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3

UABTD6 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q3

ALABPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 5Q3

UABTD4 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q3

ALABFUM4 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q3

UABTD2 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q3

ALABTD6 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3

UABTD10 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4

ALABTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

UABTD7 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4

ALABEND4 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:19UABSolomon Beebe 7 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)42–52
• Q4 4:18ALABJalen Jones 69 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)42–45
• Q4 8:21UABIsaiah Jacobs 5 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)35–45
• Q4 13:09ALABJamarie Hostzclaw 7 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)35–38
• Q3 1:42UABJevon Jackson 46 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)28–38
• Q3 4:10UABSolomon Beebe 5 Yd Run (Jevon Jackson Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
• Q3 7:45UABJevon Jackson 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)28–23
• Q3 10:10ALABAsa Gregg 5 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)28–17
• Q2 0:05ALABAjai Harrell 31 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)21–17
• Q2 14:02UABCorri Milliner 49 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)14–17
• Q2 14:56ALABDylan Djete 14 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)14–10
• Q1 6:23UABIverson Hooks 8 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–10
• Q1 10:57ALABAndrew Body 60 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)7–3
• Q1 11:39UABJonah Delange 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →