Air Force vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsCONN
- Q4 2:29AFDylan Carson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–26
- Q4 5:28CONNCam Edwards 5 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)10–26
- Q4 14:16CONNChris Freeman 27 Yd Field Goal 10–19
- Q3 5:17AFReagan Tubbs 36 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 11:18CONNCam Edwards 8 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–16
- Q2 0:28CONNChris Freeman 47 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 4:48AFDylan Carson 6 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)7–6
- Q1 10:29CONNJoe Fagnano 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassLiam Szarka 2/3, 34 YDS
- RushOwen Allen 22 CAR, 122 YDS
- RecCade Harris 2 REC, 25 YDS
- PassJoe Fagnano 15/23, 155 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCam Edwards 24 CAR, 165 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSkyler Bell 8 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:44AF +11%
PENALTY AF False Start (#18 Q.Smith) 5 yards from AF31 to AF26. NO PLAY
- Q4 14:16CONN +6%
#28 C.Freeman field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. UConn?
Air Force 16, UConn 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
| AF | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 347 |
| 66 | Passing yards | 155 |
| 290 | Rushing yards | 192 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 6/11 | Comp/Att | 15/23 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-16 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 35:25 | Possession | 24:35 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:29AFDylan Carson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–26
- Q4 5:28CONNCam Edwards 5 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)10–26
- Q4 14:16CONNChris Freeman 27 Yd Field Goal 10–19
- Q3 5:17AFReagan Tubbs 36 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 11:18CONNCam Edwards 8 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–16
- Q2 0:28CONNChris Freeman 47 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 4:48AFDylan Carson 6 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)7–6
- Q1 10:29CONNJoe Fagnano 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CONN Elo 1563, AF Elo 1388 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CONN -9.4 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AF | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#119) | CORE overall | -7.6 (#89) |
| +6 / +24 | offense / defense | +5 / +13 |
| 3.13 | points / drive | 3.14 |
| 3.57 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -27 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →