| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 7 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| CONN | 6 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CONN Elo 1563, AF Elo 1388) plus home-field advantage. That projects CONN -9.4 (76% to win), essentially in line with the market.
CONN up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Air Force 16, UConn 26.
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CONN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(05:00) No Huddle #9 L.Szarka rush left for 1 yard gain to the UConn02 (#7 M.McLean), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Joe Fagnano 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
(14:55) #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 36 yards gain to the AF43 (#6 B.Fletcher; #9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWN
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