Virginia Lynchburg vs. North Carolina Central: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Virginia Lynchburg0-6
North Carolina Central0-1
▸Final
O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium
VIRGTeam statsNORT
79Total yards439
117Pass113
-38Rush326
3First downs24
0-123rd down5-6
2Turnovers1
32:02Possession27:58
- Q4 6:20NORTQuest Powell 1 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–68
- Q3 1:20NORTSterling Greene 15 Yd pass from Joshua Jones (Juan Velarde Kick)0–61
- Q3 7:20NORTZion Dobson 5 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–54
- Q2 2:05NORTAleni Mageo 2 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–47
- Q2 9:52NORTJ'Mari Taylor 3 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–40
- Q1 1:04NORTMehki Wall 9 Yd pass from Walker Harris (Juan Velarde Kick)0–33
- Q1 3:24NORTChris Mosley 4 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–26
- Q1 9:29NORTJ'Mari Taylor 19 Yd pass from Walker Harris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q1 12:13NORTKamari Houze 0 Yd Fumble Return (Juan Velarde Kick)0–13
- Q1 12:13NORTJoaquin Davis 24 Yd pass from Walker Harris (Juan Velarde PAT blocked)0–6
What the numbers say
- VIRG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NORT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 15.3 vs 3rd & 5.2
Kickoff115 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NORT (top)VIRG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NORT 100%
Virginia Lynchburg
- PassTerrel Ashley 4/7, 67 YDS
- RushTravell Cook 1 CAR, 3 YDS
- RecNelson Tensley 2 REC, 43 YDS
North Carolina Central
- PassWalker Harris 6/9, 79 YDS, 3 TD
- RushZion Dobson 12 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJ'Mari Taylor 2 REC, 30 YDS, 1 TD
35.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
99
Points / snap
0.69
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNORT up 61 entering the 4th quarter. Across 49 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
NORT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Lynchburg vs. North Carolina Central?
Virginia Lynchburg 0, North Carolina Central 68.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NORT) was correct.
VIRG
NORT
14%
Success rate
68%
-0.08
EPA / pass
0.75
-0.63
EPA / rush
0.65
19%
Early-down success
66%
19%
Pass success
54%
6%
Rush success
73%
10%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
24%
78%
Stuffed rush rate
8%
63%
Pass rate
26%
15.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.2
VIRG
15.3 yards to go on 3rd down
49 scrimmage snaps
NORT
5.2 yards to go on 3rd down
50 scrimmage snaps
| VIRG | NORT | |
|---|---|---|
| 79 | Total yards | 439 |
| 117 | Passing yards | 113 |
| -38 | Rushing yards | 326 |
| 3 | First downs | 24 |
| 0-12 | 3rd down | 5-6 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/20 | Comp/Att | 9/14 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| -1.8 | Yards per rush | 9.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 13-135 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 32:02 | Possession | 27:58 |
VIRG
10/10 with the model
nothing given up
NORT
1/1 with the model
nothing given up
No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishVIRG 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 1/10 scoring drives
VIRGINT3 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q1
NORTTD3 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1
VIRGPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 20Q1
NORTTD5 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q1
VIRGTD3 pl, 0 yds· own 9Q1
NORTTD1 pl, 9 yds· opp 9Q1
VIRGTD3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1
NORTTD11 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2
VIRGTD3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
VIRGPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· opp 41Q2
NORTTD6 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q2
VIRGTD3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
NORTTD5 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q3
VIRGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 36Q3
VIRGPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 20Q3
NORTTD2 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q3
VIRGPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3
NORTTD6 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q4
VIRGDOWNS8 pl, 55 yds· own 34Q4
NORTEND5 pl, 47 yds· own 11Q4
- Q4 6:20NORTQuest Powell 1 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–68
- Q3 1:20NORTSterling Greene 15 Yd pass from Joshua Jones (Juan Velarde Kick)0–61
- Q3 7:20NORTZion Dobson 5 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–54
- Q2 2:05NORTAleni Mageo 2 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–47
- Q2 9:52NORTJ'Mari Taylor 3 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–40
- Q1 1:04NORTMehki Wall 9 Yd pass from Walker Harris (Juan Velarde Kick)0–33
- Q1 3:24NORTChris Mosley 4 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)0–26
- Q1 9:29NORTJ'Mari Taylor 19 Yd pass from Walker Harris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q1 12:13NORTKamari Houze 0 Yd Fumble Return (Juan Velarde Kick)0–13
- Q1 12:13NORTJoaquin Davis 24 Yd pass from Walker Harris (Juan Velarde PAT blocked)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →