Tulsa vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsUAB
- Q4 0:24TLSACorey Smith 6 Yd pass from Tim Carpenter (Seth Morgan Kick)21–59
- Q3 1:00UABKam Shanks 48 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)14–59
- Q3 7:30UABKam Shanks 34 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)14–52
- Q3 8:47TLSABill Jackson 16 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Seth Morgan Kick)14–45
- Q2 0:17TLSAJoseph Williams 13 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Seth Morgan Kick)7–45
- Q2 2:25UABAmare Thomas 15 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)0–45
- Q2 7:30UABKam Shanks 58 Yd Punt Return (Jonah Delange Kick)0–38
- Q2 9:07UABJonah Delange 52 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 14:50UABKam Shanks 67 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)0–28
- Q1 3:13UABAmare Thomas 16 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:51UABBryce Damous 14 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:44UABArmoni Goodwin 20 Yd pass from Harrison Barker (Jonah Delange Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCooper Legas 21/38, 230 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushViron Ellison Jr. 12 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecJoseph Williams 6 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJalen Kitna 25/32, 404 YDS, 6 TD
- RushLee Beebe Jr. 10 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecKam Shanks 5 REC, 153 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUAB up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 101 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:44UAB +16%
Harrison Barker pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 20 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q1 8:51UAB +12%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Bryce Damous for 14 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q1 3:13UAB +7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 16 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. UAB?
Tulsa 21, UAB 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UAB) was correct.
| TLSA | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 423 | Total yards | 537 |
| 236 | Passing yards | 424 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 10-22 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/41 | Comp/Att | 27/37 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-68 | Penalties | 10-85 |
| 31:52 | Possession | 28:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:24 TLSA go for it on 4th & 5 at UAB 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:24TLSACorey Smith 6 Yd pass from Tim Carpenter (Seth Morgan Kick)21–59
- Q3 1:00UABKam Shanks 48 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)14–59
- Q3 7:30UABKam Shanks 34 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)14–52
- Q3 8:47TLSABill Jackson 16 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Seth Morgan Kick)14–45
- Q2 0:17TLSAJoseph Williams 13 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Seth Morgan Kick)7–45
- Q2 2:25UABAmare Thomas 15 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)0–45
- Q2 7:30UABKam Shanks 58 Yd Punt Return (Jonah Delange Kick)0–38
- Q2 9:07UABJonah Delange 52 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 14:50UABKam Shanks 67 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)0–28
- Q1 3:13UABAmare Thomas 16 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:51UABBryce Damous 14 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:44UABArmoni Goodwin 20 Yd pass from Harrison Barker (Jonah Delange Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1090, TLSA Elo 1057 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -3.7 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TLSA | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -29.4 (#132) | CORE overall | -7.4 (#89) |
| -16 / +13 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
| 1.29 | points / drive | 1.83 |
| 3.02 | allowed / drive | 2.99 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →