Southern Illinois vs. South Dakota State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Southern Illinois0-1

0010

South Dakota State0-1

▸0041

Final

Dana J. Dykhouse StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	0	0	7	3	10
SOUT	3	28	10	0	41

SOUTTeam statsSOUT

233Total yards503

199Pass215

34Rush288

12First downs24

1-103rd down9-15

2Turnovers0

21:39Possession38:21

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:17SOUTPaul Geelen 36 Yd Field Goal 10–41
• Q3 3:16SOUTAllen Middleton 48 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)7–41
• Q3 6:00SOUTAmar Johnson 3 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–41
• Q3 12:46SOUTHunter Dustman 39 Yd Field Goal 0–34
• Q2 0:29SOUTKirby Vorhees 4 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–31
• Q2 3:31SOUTAmar Johnson 9 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–24
• Q2 9:25SOUTMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–17
• Q2 14:14SOUTAngel Johnson 5 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–10
• Q1 8:08SOUTHunter Dustman 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −30.5

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SOUT −30.5

What the numbers say

• SOUT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff140 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −30.5

Closing total

49.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 10 – 41 SOUT

Leaders

Southern Illinois

• PassMichael Lindauer 12/17, 145 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushJerrian Parker Jr. 6 CAR, 20 YDS
• RecAllen Middleton 5 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD

South Dakota State

• PassMark Gronowski 11/17, 185 YDS
• RushAmar Johnson 14 CAR, 157 YDS, 2 TD
• RecGriffin Wilde 3 REC, 50 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

122

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 456 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WHoly Cross vs Colgate47-7WToledo vs Eastern Michigan49-30WNotre Dame vs Stanford56-23WTexas Tech vs West Virginia52-15WWashington vs California59-32

Fourth downs

14 calls

SOUT gave up 1.8 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 6/7 · SOUT 3/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Southern Illinois vs. South Dakota State?

Southern Illinois 10, South Dakota State 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

SOUT

31%

Success rate

47%

0.21

EPA / pass

0.67

-0.39

EPA / rush

0.31

38%

Early-down success

43%

40%

Pass success

59%

13%

Rush success

41%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

16%

69%

Pass rate

31%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.5

SOUT

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

5.5 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		SOUT
233	Total yards	503
199	Passing yards	215
34	Rushing yards	288
12	First downs	24
1-10	3rd down	9-15
1-3	4th down	1-1
20/32	Comp/Att	13/21
6.2	Yards per pass	10.2
1.9	Yards per rush	5.9
2	Turnovers	0
6-45	Penalties	8-75
21:39	Possession	38:21

Fourth downs

14 calls

SOUT

6/7 with the model

nothing given up

SOUT

3/6 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 5:17 SOUT punt on 4th & 9 at SOUT 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.45 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 7/11 scoring drives

SOUTDOWNS6 pl, 39 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTFG7 pl, 57 yds· own 36Q1

SOUTDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 34Q1

SOUTPUNT7 pl, 25 yds· own 20Q1

SOUTTD6 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1

SOUTINT3 pl, -5 yds· own 27Q2

SOUTTD6 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q2

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTTD8 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTTD8 pl, 63 yds· own 22Q2

SOUTEND2 pl, 16 yds· own 34Q2

SOUTFG6 pl, 50 yds· own 29Q3

SOUTINT3 pl, 13 yds· own 21Q3

SOUTTD9 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3

SOUTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTMISS13 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 20Q4

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 12Q4

SOUTFG8 pl, 49 yds· own 32Q4

SOUTEND4 pl, 11 yds· own 11Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:17SOUTPaul Geelen 36 Yd Field Goal 10–41
• Q3 3:16SOUTAllen Middleton 48 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)7–41
• Q3 6:00SOUTAmar Johnson 3 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–41
• Q3 12:46SOUTHunter Dustman 39 Yd Field Goal 0–34
• Q2 0:29SOUTKirby Vorhees 4 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–31
• Q2 3:31SOUTAmar Johnson 9 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–24
• Q2 9:25SOUTMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–17
• Q2 14:14SOUTAngel Johnson 5 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–10
• Q1 8:08SOUTHunter Dustman 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →