Sacramento State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Sacramento State0-1
Fresno State0-1
▸Final
Valley Children's Stadium
SACTeam statsFRES
469Total yards513
354Pass358
115Rush155
20First downs22
4-143rd down8-17
3Turnovers3
25:27Possession34:33
- Q4 6:51SACAnderson Grover 36 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Zach Schreiner Kick)30–46
- Q4 8:06FRESJoshua Wood 10 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)23–46
- Q4 11:43SACAustin Jarrard 3 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–39
- Q3 1:05FRESMalik Sherrod 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)17–39
- Q3 3:32FRESTyler Mello 1 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)17–32
- Q3 12:25SACEzra Moleni 13 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Zach Schreiner Kick)17–25
- Q2 5:53SACJared Gipson 78 Yd pass from Kaiden Bennett (Zach Schreiner Kick)10–25
- Q2 12:49FRESMalik Sherrod 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–25
- Q1 7:13FRESDylan Lynch 32 Yd Field Goal 3–18
- Q1 8:12FRESJalen Moss 85 Yd Punt Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–15
- Q1 11:02SACZach Schreiner 34 Yd Field Goal 3–8
- Q1 14:50FRESMac Dalena 75 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Jayden Mandal Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
Market line
FRES −18.5
Against the number
SAC covered
line FRES −18.5
What the numbers say
- SAC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
FRES (top)SAC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FRES 100%
Closing line
FRES −18.5
Closing total
55.5
Model line
—
Actual result
SAC 30 – 46 FRES
Sacramento State
- PassCarson Conklin 20/37, 219 YDS, 3 TD
- RushElijah Tau-Tolliver 14 CAR, 74 YDS
- RecJared Gipson 5 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD
Fresno State
- PassMikey Keene 24/35, 358 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushMalik Sherrod 22 CAR, 54 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMac Dalena 7 REC, 235 YDS, 1 TD
23sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
156
Points / snap
0.49
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 822 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
FRES went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Sacramento State vs. Fresno State?
Sacramento State 30, Fresno State 46.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
SAC
FRES
39%
Success rate
44%
0.19
EPA / pass
0.42
-0.24
EPA / rush
0.18
42%
Early-down success
42%
39%
Pass success
46%
39%
Rush success
43%
13%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
27%
Stuffed rush rate
19%
66%
Pass rate
47%
7.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.7
SAC
7.3 yards to go on 3rd down
77 scrimmage snaps
FRES
5.7 yards to go on 3rd down
79 scrimmage snaps
| SAC | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 469 | Total yards | 513 |
| 354 | Passing yards | 358 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 155 |
| 20 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/50 | Comp/Att | 24/35 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 10.2 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-60 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 25:27 | Possession | 34:33 |
SAC
8/9 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
FRES
4/7 with the model
−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 4:24 FRES punt on 4th & 2 at FRES 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSAC 6/17 scoring drives← own end zone →FRES 6/16 scoring drives
FRESTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
SACPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 18Q1
SACFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 19Q1
FRESPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
SACTD3 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q1
SACFUM1 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1
FRESFG4 pl, 6 yds· opp 20Q1
SACPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 19Q1
FRESMISS8 pl, 54 yds· own 16Q1
SACPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 30Q1
FRESTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
SACPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
FRESINT3 pl, 7 yds· own 28Q2
SACDOWNS5 pl, 8 yds· opp 42Q2
FRESPUNT7 pl, 19 yds· own 34Q2
SACTD2 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
FRESPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2
SACFUM5 pl, 72 yds· own 21Q2
FRESINT3 pl, 15 yds· own 5Q2
SACINT2 pl, 0 yds· opp 13Q2
FRESEND2 pl, 2 yds· own 14Q2
SACTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
FRESPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 21Q3
SACPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 42Q3
FRESTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
SACPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 11Q3
FRESTD4 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3
SACTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
FRESTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
SACTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
FRESMISS12 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q4
SACDOWNS8 pl, 33 yds· own 28Q4
FRESEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 39Q4
- Q4 6:51SACAnderson Grover 36 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Zach Schreiner Kick)30–46
- Q4 8:06FRESJoshua Wood 10 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)23–46
- Q4 11:43SACAustin Jarrard 3 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–39
- Q3 1:05FRESMalik Sherrod 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)17–39
- Q3 3:32FRESTyler Mello 1 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)17–32
- Q3 12:25SACEzra Moleni 13 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Zach Schreiner Kick)17–25
- Q2 5:53SACJared Gipson 78 Yd pass from Kaiden Bennett (Zach Schreiner Kick)10–25
- Q2 12:49FRESMalik Sherrod 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–25
- Q1 7:13FRESDylan Lynch 32 Yd Field Goal 3–18
- Q1 8:12FRESJalen Moss 85 Yd Punt Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–15
- Q1 11:02SACZach Schreiner 34 Yd Field Goal 3–8
- Q1 14:50FRESMac Dalena 75 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Jayden Mandal Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →