Morehead State vs. Montana: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Morehead State2-0

02

Montana1-1

▸0059

Final

Washington-Grizzly Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MORE	0	0	2	0	2
MONT	15	24	13	7	59

MORETeam statsMONT

45Total yards576

59Pass166

-14Rush410

4First downs36

1-123rd down5-12

1Turnovers1

24:06Possession35:54

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:47MONTMalae Fonoti 5 Yd Run (Jo Silver Kick)2–59
• Q3 0:02MORERichard Sweeney III Defensive PAT Conversion2–52
• Q3 0:02MONTKeali'i Ah Yat 2 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow PAT blocked)0–52
• Q3 7:47MONTStevie Rocker Jr. 23 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–46
• Q2 2:07MONTEli Gillman 22 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–39
• Q2 4:33MONTNick Ostmo 10 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–32
• Q2 8:18MONTTy Morrison 46 Yd Field Goal 0–25
• Q2 13:41MONTEli Gillman 13 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–22
• Q1 8:20MONTKeelan White 2 Yd pass from Keali'i Ah Yat (Logan Fife Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
• Q1 11:23MONTKeali'i Ah Yat 1 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MONT −37

Against the number

MONT covered

line MONT −37

What the numbers say

• MORE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MONT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 4.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONT 100%50%MORE 100%

Kickoff146 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MONT (top)MORE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MONT −37

Closing total

50.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MORE 2 – 59 MONT

Leaders

Morehead State

• PassConnor Genal 4/14, 59 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJames Louis 6 CAR, 12 YDS
• RecNate Garnett Jr. 1 REC, 32 YDS

Montana

• PassLogan Fife 9/16, 87 YDS
• RushMalae Fonoti 24 CAR, 176 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKeelan White 5 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

130

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MONT up 56 entering the 4th quarter. Across 99 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MONT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Michigan vs South Alabama59-10WArkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff70-0WUConn vs Merrimack63-17WIncarnate Word vs North American University63-3WSan José State vs Cal Poly59-3

Fourth downs

18 calls

MORE gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.MORE 9/11 · MONT 5/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Morehead State vs. Montana?

Morehead State 2, Montana 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MONT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MORE

MONT

15%

Success rate

66%

-0.33

EPA / pass

0.11

-0.28

EPA / rush

0.55

15%

Early-down success

68%

13%

Pass success

53%

17%

Rush success

74%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

25%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

49%

Pass rate

36%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.5

MORE

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

47 scrimmage snaps

MONT

4.5 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MORE		MONT
45	Total yards	576
59	Passing yards	166
-14	Rushing yards	410
4	First downs	36
1-12	3rd down	5-12
0-1	4th down	4-5
4/16	Comp/Att	18/28
3.7	Yards per pass	5.9
-0.5	Yards per rush	7.5
1	Turnovers	1
4-25	Penalties	1-11
24:06	Possession	35:54

Fourth downs

18 calls

MORE

9/11 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

MONT

5/6 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 1:08 MORE punt on 4th & 1 at MORE 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MORE 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MONT 9/13 scoring drives

MOREPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 16Q1

MONTTD6 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q1

MOREINT2 pl, -5 yds· own 22Q1

MONTTD4 pl, 16 yds· opp 16Q1

MOREPUNT5 pl, 32 yds· own 1Q1

MONTINT2 pl, 20 yds· own 29Q1

MOREDOWNS10 pl, 16 yds· own 34Q1

MONTTD5 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1

MOREPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 11Q2

MONTFG6 pl, 18 yds· opp 47Q2

MOREPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q2

MONTTD7 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2

MOREPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q2

MONTTD3 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2

MOREPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

MONTMISS10 pl, 54 yds· own 31Q2

MONTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 22Q3

MOREPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 42Q3

MONTTD9 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q3

MOREPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

MONTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

MOREPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3

MONTTD9 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4

MOREPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 23Q4

MONTDOWNS11 pl, 60 yds· own 36Q4

MOREEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 4Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:47MONTMalae Fonoti 5 Yd Run (Jo Silver Kick)2–59
• Q3 0:02MORERichard Sweeney III Defensive PAT Conversion2–52
• Q3 0:02MONTKeali'i Ah Yat 2 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow PAT blocked)0–52
• Q3 7:47MONTStevie Rocker Jr. 23 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–46
• Q2 2:07MONTEli Gillman 22 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–39
• Q2 4:33MONTNick Ostmo 10 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–32
• Q2 8:18MONTTy Morrison 46 Yd Field Goal 0–25
• Q2 13:41MONTEli Gillman 13 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–22
• Q1 8:20MONTKeelan White 2 Yd pass from Keali'i Ah Yat (Logan Fife Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
• Q1 11:23MONTKeali'i Ah Yat 1 Yd Run (Ty Morrison Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →