Army vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsND
- Q4 0:22ARMYBryson Daily 1 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)14–49
- Q4 10:40NDAneyas Williams 58 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–49
- Q3 0:45NDJadarian Price 10 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–42
- Q3 14:44NDJeremiyah Love 68 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–35
- Q2 0:26NDJadarian Price 2 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–28
- Q2 4:35NDJeremiyah Love 14 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–21
- Q2 13:53ARMYBryson Daily 4 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:30NDJeremiyah Love 6 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:24NDJordan Faison 28 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
How the model called it
For one quarter the Black Knights belonged in the Bronx. Then the green jerseys started running, and they never stopped.
They came to the Bronx with a streak and a plan and a quarterback who runs downhill, and for one quarter Army even looked the part. Then Notre Dame turned Yankee Stadium into a track meet, and there was nothing the Black Knights could do but watch the green jerseys run by. Final: 49-14, and it wasn't even that close.
Notre Dame didn't wait. On the game's opening possession Riley Leonard found Jordan Faison for 28 yards and a touchdown with 10:24 still on the first-quarter clock, and four minutes later Leonard hit Jeremiyah Love from six. Two drives, two scores, and a crowd that had come to see a fistfight was already watching a sprint.
- PassBryson Daily 4/8, 26 YDS
- RushBryson Daily 38 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCasey Reynolds 1 REC, 11 YDS
- PassRiley Leonard 10/13, 148 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeremiyah Love 7 CAR, 130 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJordan Faison 2 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 274 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:24ND +7%
Jordan Faison 28 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Notre Dame?
Army 14, Notre Dame 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| ARMY | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 233 | Total yards | 464 |
| 26 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 275 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 3-5 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 4/9 | Comp/Att | 14/18 |
| 2.9 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 9.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-26 | Penalties | 5-44 |
| 39:49 | Possession | 20:11 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:38 ARMY go for it on 4th & 9 at ARMY 39. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:22ARMYBryson Daily 1 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)14–49
- Q4 10:40NDAneyas Williams 58 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–49
- Q3 0:45NDJadarian Price 10 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–42
- Q3 14:44NDJeremiyah Love 68 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–35
- Q2 0:26NDJadarian Price 2 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–28
- Q2 4:35NDJeremiyah Love 14 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–21
- Q2 13:53ARMYBryson Daily 4 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:30NDJeremiyah Love 6 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:24NDJordan Faison 28 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2115, ARMY Elo 1661 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ND -18.2 (88% to win) — 3.7 points clear of ND's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 40–8–4 · Notre Dame has won 16 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| ARMY | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#35) | CORE overall | +31.5 (#2) |
| +10 / -0 | offense / defense | +12 / -19 |
| 3.77 | points / drive | 3.19 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -27 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Notre Dame Turns the Bronx Into a Track Meet, 49-14
For one quarter the Black Knights belonged in the Bronx. Then the green jerseys started running, and they never stopped.
Give Army this: Bryson Daily would not quit. The Army quarterback churned for 139 yards on the ground and punched in a 4-yard score early in the second to make it 14-7, and for a heartbeat the option offense had its rhythm and the building had its noise back.
The hinge
The game turned at the goal line, but not the way Army needed. Notre Dame had a first-and-goal inside the 5 late in the second and got greedy with it -- Love stuffed for a loss back to the 2, the drive dead, a rare empty trip. It should have been a lifeline. Instead Notre Dame just kept coming. Love ran in a 14-yarder, and with 26 seconds left in the half Jadarian Price scored from two. What looked like a one-score game at the break was 28-7, and the damage was done before the bands finished playing.
Then came the body blow. On the very first snap of the second half, Love took it 68 yards to the house -- one cut, one seam, gone. That is the whole story of the night in a single run: one offense moved on schedule and broke the long ones too, and the other lived snap-to-snap and never got loose. Price added a 10-yarder late in the third, Aneyas Williams ripped off a 58-yard touchdown in the fourth, and the rout had its own gravity.
Daily got his second score on a 1-yard plunge with 22 seconds left, a touchdown for the box score and nothing else. The arithmetic had been settled hours earlier, somewhere around the time Love crossed midfield untouched. Notre Dame finished what it started on every series that mattered; Army finished the one that didn't. Leonard threw two touchdowns and never had to do more. Love ran for 130 and two scores and looked like the best player on a field full of them. The Black Knights walked off the Bronx with their answers, and none of them were good.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →