Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

00

Arkansas

▸0070

Final

War Memorial Stadium (AR)Neutral site

	1	2	3	4	T
ARKA	0	0	0	0	0
ARK	28	21	7	14	70

ARKATeam statsARK

130Total yards687

123Pass408

7Rush279

10First downs34

1-103rd down9-9

0Turnovers0

27:45Possession32:15

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:36ARKTyrell Reed Jr. 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–70
• Q4 8:14ARKMalachi Singleton 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–63
• Q3 6:13ARKBraylen Russell 9 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–56
• Q2 0:09ARKTaylen Green 36 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–49
• Q2 5:37ARKTy Washington 23 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–42
• Q2 12:06ARKTyrone Broden 9 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–35
• Q1 1:12ARKRodney Hill 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–28
• Q1 5:03ARKJa'Quinden Jackson 46 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:16ARKTaylen Green 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:08ARKJa'Quinden Jackson 8 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ARK −50.5

Against the number

ARK covered

line ARK −50.5

What the numbers say

• ARKA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 5.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ARK 100%50%ARKA 100%

Kickoff134 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ARK (top)ARKA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARK 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ARK −50.5

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

ARKA 0 – 70 ARK

Leaders

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

• PassMekhi Hagens 11/23, 123 YDS
• RushOshawn Ross 5 CAR, 13 YDS
• RecAramoni Rhone 2 REC, 34 YDS

Arkansas

• PassTaylen Green 16/23, 229 YDS, 2 TD
• RushJa'Quinden Jackson 8 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
• RecIsaac TeSlaa 3 REC, 53 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.58

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ARK up 56 entering the 4th quarter. Across 97 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ARK went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Michigan vs South Alabama59-10WUConn vs Merrimack63-17WIncarnate Word vs North American University63-3WSan José State vs Cal Poly59-3WAlabama vs Western Kentucky63-0

Fourth downs

10 calls

ARKA gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.ARKA 7/9 · ARK 0/0 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Arkansas?

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0, Arkansas 70.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ARK) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ARKA

ARK

27%

Success rate

73%

0.11

EPA / pass

0.73

-0.51

EPA / rush

0.85

32%

Early-down success

69%

28%

Pass success

71%

25%

Rush success

76%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

40%

Stuffed rush rate

6%

59%

Pass rate

54%

9.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.9

ARKA

9.3 yards to go on 3rd down

49 scrimmage snaps

ARK

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ARKA		ARK
130	Total yards	687
123	Passing yards	408
7	Rushing yards	279
10	First downs	34
1-10	3rd down	9-9
0-0	4th down	0-0
11/23	Comp/Att	28/37
5.3	Yards per pass	11.0
0.3	Yards per rush	8.5
0	Turnovers	0
5-35	Penalties	6-48
27:45	Possession	32:15

Fourth downs

10 calls

ARKA

7/9 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

ARK

0/0 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 3:44 ARKA go for it on 4th & 10 at ARKA 40. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.68 points.

Every call, priced (10)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ARKA 0/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ARK 10/10 scoring drives

ARKTD8 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1

ARKAPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q1

ARKTD5 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1

ARKAPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1

ARKTD3 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

ARKTD7 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1

ARKAPUNT4 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

ARKTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

ARKAPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2

ARKTD6 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2

ARKAPUNT8 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q2

ARKTD7 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2

ARKAEND1 pl, 4 yds· own 22Q2

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

ARKTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

ARKAPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q3

ARKTD12 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q3

ARKAPUNT8 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q4

ARKTD10 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q4

ARKAEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:36ARKTyrell Reed Jr. 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–70
• Q4 8:14ARKMalachi Singleton 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–63
• Q3 6:13ARKBraylen Russell 9 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–56
• Q2 0:09ARKTaylen Green 36 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–49
• Q2 5:37ARKTy Washington 23 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–42
• Q2 12:06ARKTyrone Broden 9 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–35
• Q1 1:12ARKRodney Hill 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–28
• Q1 5:03ARKJa'Quinden Jackson 46 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:16ARKTaylen Green 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:08ARKJa'Quinden Jackson 8 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →