Arkansas Baptist vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Arkansas Baptist

00

Arkansas-Pine Bluff0-1

▸0073

Final

Golden Lion Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ARKA	0	0	0	0	0
ARKA	28	24	7	14	73

ARKATeam statsARKA

161Total yards670

82Pass350

79Rush320

9First downs25

4-123rd down4-7

6Turnovers0

32:37Possession27:23

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:28ARKALandon Holcomb 15 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–73
• Q4 6:00ARKAZa'Marion Webber 2 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–66
• Q3 7:25ARKADonovan Giles 17 Yd pass from Mekhi Hagens (Braden Ducharme Kick)0–59
• Q2 0:00ARKABraden Ducharme 38 Yd Field Goal 0–52
• Q2 1:58ARKAJaVonnie Gibson 54 Yd pass from Mekhi Hagens (Braden Ducharme Kick)0–49
• Q2 8:47ARKAOshawn Ross 54 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–42
• Q2 12:27ARKAJohness Davis 22 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–35
• Q1 1:18ARKAOshawn Ross 32 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–28
• Q1 3:35ARKAKareem Burke 43 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–21
• Q1 7:20ARKAOshawn Ross 2 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:22ARKAJohness Davis 1 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ARKA 100%50%ARKA 100%

Kickoff106 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ARKA (top)ARKA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARKA 100%

Leaders

Arkansas Baptist

• PassTyler Strickland 11/21, 82 YDS, 4 INT
• RushChris Witherspoon 11 CAR, 45 YDS
• RecTavion Rupert 3 REC, 23 YDS

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

• PassMekhi Hagens 15/22, 350 YDS, 2 TD
• RushOshawn Ross 5 CAR, 100 YDS, 3 TD
• RecJV Gibson 6 REC, 172 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

98

Points / snap

0.74

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ARKA up 59 entering the 4th quarter. Across 64 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ARKA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOle Miss vs Mercer73-7WCoastal Carolina vs Duquesne66-7WNicholls vs Mississippi Valley State66-0WUCLA vs North Carolina Central59-7WUT Martin vs Houston Christian66-7

Fourth downs

7 calls

ARKA gave up 1.6 points to the model on fourth down.ARKA 3/6 · ARKA 0/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Arkansas Baptist vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff?

Arkansas Baptist 0, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 73.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ARKA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ARKA

ARKA

29%

Success rate

50%

-0.48

EPA / pass

0.43

0.01

EPA / rush

0.92

27%

Early-down success

50%

31%

Pass success

41%

27%

Rush success

62%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

30%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

54%

Pass rate

58%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.4

ARKA

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

48 scrimmage snaps

ARKA

8.4 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ARKA		ARKA
161	Total yards	670
82	Passing yards	350
79	Rushing yards	320
9	First downs	25
4-12	3rd down	4-7
0-0	4th down	0-1
11/22	Comp/Att	15/26
3.7	Yards per pass	13.5
2.7	Yards per rush	10.0
6	Turnovers	0
4-25	Penalties	6-75
32:37	Possession	27:23

Fourth downs

7 calls

ARKA

3/6 with the model

−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

ARKA

0/1 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 0:36 ARKA punt on 4th & 1 at ARKA 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.

Every call, priced (7)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ARKA 0/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ARKA 8/12 scoring drives

ARKATD4 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q1

ARKAPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 22Q1

ARKATD7 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q1

ARKAPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 33Q1

ARKATD2 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q1

ARKAINT3 pl, -3 yds· own 32Q1

ARKATD3 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

ARKAPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 27Q1

ARKATD7 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q2

ARKAINT6 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2

ARKATD3 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q2

ARKAPUNT7 pl, 27 yds· own 27Q2

ARKAUncateg4 pl, 50 yds· own 10Q2

ARKAINT2 pl, 9 yds· own 49Q2

ARKATD3 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q2

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 28Q2

ARKAFG6 pl, 32 yds· own 47Q2

ARKAFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q3

ARKATD6 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q3

ARKAINT8 pl, 57 yds· own 10Q3

ARKADOWNS5 pl, -8 yds· opp 22Q3

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 30Q3

ARKAUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:28ARKALandon Holcomb 15 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–73
• Q4 6:00ARKAZa'Marion Webber 2 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–66
• Q3 7:25ARKADonovan Giles 17 Yd pass from Mekhi Hagens (Braden Ducharme Kick)0–59
• Q2 0:00ARKABraden Ducharme 38 Yd Field Goal 0–52
• Q2 1:58ARKAJaVonnie Gibson 54 Yd pass from Mekhi Hagens (Braden Ducharme Kick)0–49
• Q2 8:47ARKAOshawn Ross 54 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–42
• Q2 12:27ARKAJohness Davis 22 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–35
• Q1 1:18ARKAOshawn Ross 32 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–28
• Q1 3:35ARKAKareem Burke 43 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–21
• Q1 7:20ARKAOshawn Ross 2 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:22ARKAJohness Davis 1 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →