Western Carolina vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Western Carolina

0013

Arkansas

▸0056

Final

War Memorial Stadium (AR)Neutral site

	1	2	3	4	T
WEST	3	0	7	3	13
ARK	21	14	7	14	56

WESTTeam statsARK

291Total yards379

227Pass274

64Rush105

18First downs21

4-153rd down6-13

5Turnovers0

30:43Possession29:17

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00WESTRichard McCollum 33 Yd Field Goal 13–56
• Q4 4:19ARKBrad Spence 85 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)10–56
• Q4 7:55ARKDavion Dozier 14 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Cam Little Kick)10–49
• Q3 6:13ARKAndrew Armstrong 16 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)10–42
• Q3 10:59WESTDesmond Reid 2 Yd Run (Richard McCollum Kick)10–35
• Q2 0:00ARKRaheim Sanders 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)3–35
• Q2 2:56ARKKJ Jefferson 17 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)3–28
• Q1 0:15WESTRichard McCollum 34 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q1 3:03ARKIsaac TeSlaa 31 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:40ARKRaheim Sanders 3 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:03ARKJaedon Wilson 65 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ARK −38

Against the number

ARK covered

line ARK −38

What the numbers say

• WEST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 40% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ARK 100%50%WEST 100%

Kickoff151 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ARK (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARK 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ARK −38

Closing total

61.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WEST 13 – 56 ARK

Leaders

Western Carolina

• PassCole Gonzales 9/14, 118 YDS, 1 INT
• RushBranson Adams 4 CAR, 38 YDS
• RecCensere Lee 3 REC, 41 YDS

Arkansas

• PassKJ Jefferson 18/23, 246 YDS, 3 TD
• RushRaheim Sanders 15 CAR, 42 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJaedon Wilson 3 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

135

Points / snap

0.51

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ARK up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 370 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ARK went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMontana State vs Utah Tech63-20WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WNC State vs VMI45-7WAir Force vs San Diego State49-10

Fourth downs

16 calls

WEST gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.WEST 7/8 · ARK 7/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Carolina vs. Arkansas?

Western Carolina 13, Arkansas 56.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ARK) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEST

ARK

40%

Success rate

52%

-0.10

EPA / pass

0.85

0.08

EPA / rush

0.34

41%

Early-down success

51%

41%

Pass success

52%

37%

Rush success

51%

15%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

7%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

63%

Pass rate

44%

8.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.0

WEST

8.7 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

ARK

8.0 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEST		ARK
291	Total yards	379
227	Passing yards	274
64	Rushing yards	105
18	First downs	21
4-15	3rd down	6-13
1-2	4th down	2-2
25/40	Comp/Att	20/25
5.7	Yards per pass	11.0
2.1	Yards per rush	2.9
5	Turnovers	0
3-30	Penalties	7-86
30:43	Possession	29:17

Fourth downs

16 calls

WEST

7/8 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

ARK

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 7:30 WEST punt on 4th & 15 at ARK 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEST 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ARK 7/12 scoring drives

WESTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

ARKTD2 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q1

WESTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q1

ARKTD7 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q1

WESTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

ARKPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 18Q1

WESTINT3 pl, -2 yds· own 22Q1

ARKTD1 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q1

WESTFG8 pl, 59 yds· own 24Q1

ARKPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1

WESTPUNT8 pl, 46 yds· own 15Q2

ARKPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 6Q2

WESTINT2 pl, -7 yds· own 38Q2

ARKTD5 pl, 32 yds· opp 32Q2

WESTFUM1 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q2

ARKTD8 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q2

ARKPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 9Q3

WESTTD6 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3

ARKTD9 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3

WESTINT9 pl, 44 yds· own 10Q3

ARKPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q3

WESTPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 15Q4

ARKTD7 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q4

WESTTD9 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q4

WESTFG13 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00WESTRichard McCollum 33 Yd Field Goal 13–56
• Q4 4:19ARKBrad Spence 85 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)10–56
• Q4 7:55ARKDavion Dozier 14 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Cam Little Kick)10–49
• Q3 6:13ARKAndrew Armstrong 16 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)10–42
• Q3 10:59WESTDesmond Reid 2 Yd Run (Richard McCollum Kick)10–35
• Q2 0:00ARKRaheim Sanders 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)3–35
• Q2 2:56ARKKJ Jefferson 17 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)3–28
• Q1 0:15WESTRichard McCollum 34 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q1 3:03ARKIsaac TeSlaa 31 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:40ARKRaheim Sanders 3 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:03ARKJaedon Wilson 65 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →