Virginia vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsMD
- Q4 5:58MDColby McDonald 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–42
- Q4 10:25MDAntwain Littleton II 2 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–35
- Q4 11:10MDRoman Hemby 3 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–28
- Q3 9:47MDJeshaun Jones 64 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)14–21
- Q2 1:23MDRoman Hemby 3 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:03MDBraeden Wisloski 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Jack Howes Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:16UVAKobe Pace 19 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:25UVAPerris Jones 13 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UVA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MD did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 5.8
- UVA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassAnthony Colandrea 23/39, 263 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushPerris Jones 9 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalik Washington 9 REC, 141 YDS
- PassTaulia Tagovailoa 19/30, 342 YDS, 1 TD
- RushColby McDonald 10 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeshaun Jones 5 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,298 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:03MD +22%
HARRISON, Suderian rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the UVA28 (MILLER, Glendon). PENALTY UVA Holding on FURNISH, Ty enforced 10 yards from the UVA25 to the U…
- Q1 4:16UVA +21%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 19 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
- Q2 1:23MD +19%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q3 9:47MD +17%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 64 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q1 12:25UVA +16%
Perris Jones run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
- Q4 11:10MD +7%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. Maryland?
Virginia 14, Maryland 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
| UVA | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 354 | Total yards | 461 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 342 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 25 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 23/39 | Comp/Att | 19/30 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-46 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 31:27 | Possession | 28:33 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:16 MD punt on 4th & 2 at UVA 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:58MDColby McDonald 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–42
- Q4 10:25MDAntwain Littleton II 2 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–35
- Q4 11:10MDRoman Hemby 3 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–28
- Q3 9:47MDJeshaun Jones 64 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)14–21
- Q2 1:23MDRoman Hemby 3 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:03MDBraeden Wisloski 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Jack Howes Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:16UVAKobe Pace 19 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:25UVAPerris Jones 13 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1602, UVA Elo 1350 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD -12.5 (80% to win) — 3.5 points clear of UVA's market line of -16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMaryland leads 46–32–2 · Maryland has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| UVA | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#87) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#17) |
| -3 / +3 | offense / defense | +8 / -9 |
| 1.63 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.67 | allowed / drive | 2.03 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →