Virginia Tech vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsFSU
- Q4 8:28FSUTrey Benson 85 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–39
- Q3 6:23FSURyan Fitzgerald 26 Yd Field Goal 17–32
- Q3 14:19FSUTrey Benson 62 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–29
- Q3 14:47VTBhayshul Tuten 99 Yd Kickoff Return (John Love Kick)17–22
- Q2 0:46VTBhayshul Tuten 5 Yd Run (John Love Kick)10–22
- Q2 9:37VTJohn Love 29 Yd Field Goal 3–22
- Q1 1:34FSUJohnny Wilson 18 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–22
- Q1 4:44FSULawrance Toafili 28 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–15
- Q1 9:13FSUJohnny Wilson 7 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Brian Courtney Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
- PassKyron Drones 14/27, 104 YDS
- RushKyron Drones 14 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecJaylin Lane 6 REC, 51 YDS
- PassJordan Travis 18/24, 170 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTrey Benson 11 CAR, 200 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJohnny Wilson 4 REC, 54 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,203 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:13FSU +7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 7 yds for a TD (B. Courtney Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q3 14:19FSU +6%
Trey Benson run for 62 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
- Q3 14:47VT +6%
Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 64 yds, Bhayshul Tuten return for 99 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Florida State?
Virginia Tech 17, Florida State 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
| VT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 313 | Total yards | 452 |
| 104 | Passing yards | 170 |
| 209 | Rushing yards | 282 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 14/27 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 7.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 12-99 |
| 31:16 | Possession | 28:44 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:19 VT go for it on 4th & 17 at FSU 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:28FSUTrey Benson 85 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–39
- Q3 6:23FSURyan Fitzgerald 26 Yd Field Goal 17–32
- Q3 14:19FSUTrey Benson 62 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–29
- Q3 14:47VTBhayshul Tuten 99 Yd Kickoff Return (John Love Kick)17–22
- Q2 0:46VTBhayshul Tuten 5 Yd Run (John Love Kick)10–22
- Q2 9:37VTJohn Love 29 Yd Field Goal 3–22
- Q1 1:34FSUJohnny Wilson 18 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–22
- Q1 4:44FSULawrance Toafili 28 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–15
- Q1 9:13FSUJohnny Wilson 7 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Brian Courtney Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1871, VT Elo 1424 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU -20.3 (90% to win) — 3.7 points clear of VT's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida State leads 25–13–1 · Florida State has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| VT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.6 (#35) | CORE overall | +16.3 (#20) |
| +5 / -3 | offense / defense | +3 / -13 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 1.47 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →