Villanova vs. UCF: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Villanova

UCF2-0

▸

Final

FBC Mortgage Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
VILL	0	0	0	14	14
UCF	17	17	7	7	48

VILLTeam statsUCF

228Total yards600

144Pass349

84Rush251

11First downs31

1-123rd down7-15

1Turnovers0

27:08Possession32:52

Q4 4:44VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 11 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)14–48
Q4 11:22UCFJaylon Griffin 36 Yd pass from Timmy McClain (Colton Boomer Kick)7–48
Q4 13:42VILLConnor Watkins 3 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–41
Q3 5:12UCFRJ Harvey 24 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–41
Q2 0:25UCFColton Boomer 41 Yd Field Goal 0–34
Q2 5:04UCFJavon Baker 25 Yd pass from Timmy McClain (Colton Boomer Kick)0–31
Q2 7:47UCFRJ Harvey 5 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–24
Q1 1:01UCFJordan McDonald 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–17
Q1 4:51UCFJordan McDonald 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–10
Q1 9:21UCFColton Boomer 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

UCF −26.5

Against the number

UCF covered

line UCF −26.5

What the numbers say

VILL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UCF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 4.5

Kickoff160 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UCF (top)VILL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UCF 100%

Closing line

UCF −26.5

Closing total

54.0

Model line

—

Actual result

VILL 14 – 48 UCF

Villanova

PassConnor Watkins 9/23, 144 YDS, 1 INT
RushDeeWil Barlee 7 CAR, 39 YDS
RecJaylan Sanchez 1 REC, 45 YDS

UCF

PassTimmy McClain 20/28, 321 YDS, 2 TD
RushRJ Harvey 14 CAR, 85 YDS, 2 TD
RecKobe Hudson 6 REC, 147 YDS

25.5sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

141

Points / snap

0.44

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UCF up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 197 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

UCF went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWashington vs Michigan State41-7 WClemson vs Florida Atlantic48-14 WStephen F. Austin vs Northwestern State41-7 WDuke vs UConn41-7 WFresno State vs Kent State56-10

FAQ

What was the final score of Villanova vs. UCF?

Villanova 14, UCF 48.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.

VILL

UCF

26%

Success rate

58%

0.11

EPA / pass

0.44

-0.04

EPA / rush

0.32

28%

Early-down success

60%

19%

Pass success

51%

33%

Rush success

62%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

30%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

49%

Pass rate

40%

7.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.5

VILL

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

53 scrimmage snaps

UCF

4.5 yards to go on 3rd down

88 scrimmage snaps

VILL		UCF
228	Total yards	600
144	Passing yards	349
84	Rushing yards	251
11	First downs	31
1-12	3rd down	7-15
2-2	4th down	2-3
9/23	Comp/Att	24/33
6.3	Yards per pass	10.6
2.8	Yards per rush	4.6
1	Turnovers	0
3-20	Penalties	7-43
27:08	Possession	32:52

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

VILLTeam statsUCF

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Villanova vs. UCF?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Villanova vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap

VILLTeam statsUCF

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Villanova vs. UCF?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?