UCLA vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsARIZ
- Q4 4:40ARIZTyler Loop 22 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q4 14:37ARIZTetairoa McMillan 11 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)10–24
- Q3 2:28UCLABlake Glessner 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q3 8:15ARIZTyler Loop 37 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 0:03UCLACarsen Ryan 14 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)7–14
- Q2 1:27ARIZJacob Cowing 9 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:27ARIZMontana Lemonious-Craig 9 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassEthan Garbers 13/21, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCollin Schlee 6 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecLogan Loya 3 REC, 42 YDS
- PassNoah Fifita 25/32, 300 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJonah Coleman 17 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecTetairoa McMillan 4 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,298 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:27ARIZ +19%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q2 0:03UCLA +18%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)
- Q2 1:27ARIZ +16%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q4 14:37ARIZ +13%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q3 2:28UCLA +10%
Blake Glessner 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 8:15ARIZ +8%
Tyler Loop 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. Arizona?
UCLA 10, Arizona 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCLA | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | Total yards | 429 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 300 |
| 114 | Rushing yards | 129 |
| 17 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 11-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/33 | Comp/Att | 25/33 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-44 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 24:46 | Possession | 35:14 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:02 UCLA go for it on 4th & 14 at ARIZ 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.20 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:40ARIZTyler Loop 22 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q4 14:37ARIZTetairoa McMillan 11 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)10–24
- Q3 2:28UCLABlake Glessner 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q3 8:15ARIZTyler Loop 37 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 0:03UCLACarsen Ryan 14 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)7–14
- Q2 1:27ARIZJacob Cowing 9 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:27ARIZMontana Lemonious-Craig 9 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1610, UCLA Elo 1709 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +1.6 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #104 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #26 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →UCLA leads 27–18–2 · Arizona has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#34) | CORE overall | +15.3 (#22) |
| -5 / -15 | offense / defense | +12 / -3 |
| 1.92 | points / drive | 3.15 |
| 1.43 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →