UAlbany vs. Maine: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

UAlbany0-2

▸0037

Maine0-1

0021

Final

Alfond StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
UALB	10	14	13	0	37
MAIN	7	7	0	7	21

UALBTeam statsMAIN

473Total yards312

324Pass220

149Rush92

21First downs21

6-123rd down7-14

0Turnovers3

29:07Possession30:53

Scoring plays

• Q4 11:04MAINTristen Kenan 11 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)37–21
• Q3 6:07UALBFaysal Aden 12 Yd Run (John Opalko Kick)37–14
• Q3 11:19UALBFaysal Aden 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–14
• Q2 2:31UALBBrevin Easton 53 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)24–14
• Q2 5:08MAINMichael Monios 4 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)17–14
• Q2 11:36UALBBrian Abraham 68 Yd Fumble Return (John Opalko Kick)17–7
• Q1 0:50UALBJohn Opalko 22 Yd Field Goal 10–7
• Q1 3:48UALBBrevin Easton 22 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)7–7
• Q1 10:39MAINJamie Lamson 8 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UALB −11

Against the number

UALB covered

line UALB −11

What the numbers say

• MAIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UALB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 6.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MAIN 100%50%UALB 100%

Kickoff144 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MAIN (top)UALB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MAIN 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UALB −11

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

UALB 37 – 21 MAIN

Leaders

UAlbany

• PassReese Poffenbarger 18/30, 324 YDS, 2 TD
• RushFaysal Aden 22 CAR, 141 YDS, 2 TD
• RecMarQeese Dietz 7 REC, 150 YDS

Maine

• PassDerek Robertson 29/43, 220 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
• RushBrian Santana-Fis 4 CAR, 37 YDS
• RecMichael Monios 10 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

132

Points / snap

0.44

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UALB up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 834 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

UALB went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSouth Alabama vs Oklahoma State33-7WPennsylvania vs Bucknell37-21WVillanova vs North Carolina A&T37-14WTroy vs Arkansas State37-3WSamford vs The Citadel37-7

Fourth downs

12 calls

MAIN gave up 1.6 points to the model on fourth down.UALB 1/4 · MAIN 4/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of UAlbany vs. Maine?

UAlbany 37, Maine 21.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked MAIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

UALB

MAIN

45%

Success rate

45%

0.61

EPA / pass

0.29

0.13

EPA / rush

-0.14

44%

Early-down success

40%

42%

Pass success

50%

47%

Rush success

35%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

22%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

51%

Pass rate

66%

6.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.1

UALB

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

MAIN

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

UALB		MAIN
473	Total yards	312
324	Passing yards	220
149	Rushing yards	92
21	First downs	21
6-12	3rd down	7-14
1-3	4th down	3-3
18/30	Comp/Att	29/43
10.8	Yards per pass	5.1
4.7	Yards per rush	3.8
0	Turnovers	3
7-53	Penalties	3-17
29:07	Possession	30:53

Fourth downs

12 calls

UALB

1/4 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

MAIN

4/6 with the model

−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 2:15 MAIN punt on 4th & 1 at MAIN 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

UALB 5/9 scoring drives← own end zone →MAIN 4/11 scoring drives

MAINTD8 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1

UALBPUNT7 pl, 31 yds· own 21Q1

MAINPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 20Q1

UALBTD4 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1

MAINPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 19Q1

UALBFG5 pl, 54 yds· own 41Q1

MAINTD9 pl, 17 yds· opp 49Q1

MAINTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

UALBTD7 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2

MAININT6 pl, 26 yds· own 29Q2

UALBDOWNS7 pl, 20 yds· opp 49Q2

MAINEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 29Q2

UALBTD7 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3

MAINPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 29Q3

UALBTD6 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3

MAININT11 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q3

UALBPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 1Q3

MAINTD6 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q4

UALBDOWNS17 pl, 64 yds· own 35Q4

MAINEND2 pl, 32 yds· own 1Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 11:04MAINTristen Kenan 11 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)37–21
• Q3 6:07UALBFaysal Aden 12 Yd Run (John Opalko Kick)37–14
• Q3 11:19UALBFaysal Aden 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–14
• Q2 2:31UALBBrevin Easton 53 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)24–14
• Q2 5:08MAINMichael Monios 4 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)17–14
• Q2 11:36UALBBrian Abraham 68 Yd Fumble Return (John Opalko Kick)17–7
• Q1 0:50UALBJohn Opalko 22 Yd Field Goal 10–7
• Q1 3:48UALBBrevin Easton 22 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)7–7
• Q1 10:39MAINJamie Lamson 8 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →