The Citadel vs. Furman: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
The Citadel0-1
Furman0-1
▸Final
Paladin StadiumConference game
THE Team statsFURM
278Total yards345
239Pass146
39Rush199
18First downs24
3-123rd down8-14
3Turnovers1
24:35Possession35:25
- Q4 8:13THE Graeson Underwood 1 Yd Run (Graeson Underwood Pass to Jay Graves-Billips for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q3 1:12THE Johnny Crawford III 5 Yd Run (Colby Kintner PAT failed)6–28
- Q3 4:48FURMNick Cannon 6 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Ian Williams Kick)0–28
- Q3 11:33FURMDominic Roberto 5 Yd Run (Axel Lepvreau Kick)0–21
- Q2 1:21FURMMyion Hicks 1 Yd Run (Ian Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 0:06FURMLuke Shiflett 14 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Axel Lepvreau Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
FURM −34.5
Against the number
THE covered
line FURM −34.5
Kickoff153 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
FURM (top)THE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FURM 100%
Closing line
FURM −34.5
Closing total
51.5
Model line
—
Actual result
THE 14 – 28 FURM
The Citadel
- PassGraeson Underwood 18/33, 226 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJohnny Crawford III 10 CAR, 26 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavonte Graves-Billips 4 REC, 50 YDS
Furman
- PassTyler Huff 19/24, 146 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTyler Huff 9 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecKyndel Dean 3 REC, 32 YDS
25.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
139
Points / snap
0.30
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFURM up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 821 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
FURM went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of The Citadel vs. Furman?
The Citadel 14, Furman 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FURM) was correct.
THE
FURM
40%
Success rate
47%
0.03
EPA / pass
0.57
-0.17
EPA / rush
-0.05
45%
Early-down success
46%
46%
Pass success
50%
32%
Rush success
46%
9%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
7%
36%
Stuffed rush rate
25%
57%
Pass rate
35%
6.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
8.1
THE
6.8 yards to go on 3rd down
65 scrimmage snaps
FURM
8.1 yards to go on 3rd down
74 scrimmage snaps
| THE | FURM | |
|---|---|---|
| 278 | Total yards | 345 |
| 239 | Passing yards | 146 |
| 39 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 18 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/34 | Comp/Att | 19/24 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-32 | Penalties | 9-63 |
| 24:35 | Possession | 35:25 |
THE
5/7 with the model
−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
FURM
3/4 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 13:11 THE go for it on 4th & 6 at FURM 14. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishTHE 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →FURM 4/11 scoring drives
THE DOWNS14 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q1
FURMINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q1
THE INT3 pl, 11 yds· opp 19Q1
FURMTD12 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
THE PUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1
FURMDOWNS11 pl, 43 yds· own 39Q2
THE INT1 pl, 0 yds· own 18Q2
FURMMISS4 pl, -5 yds· opp 20Q2
THE PUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q2
FURMTD7 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
THE FUM12 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q2
FURMEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
FURMTD8 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q3
THE PUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
FURMTD10 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q3
THE TD7 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3
FURMPUNT6 pl, 6 yds· own 33Q3
THE TD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
FURMPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 15Q4
THE DOWNS5 pl, 33 yds· own 20Q4
FURMEND7 pl, 19 yds· own 47Q4
- Q4 8:13THE Graeson Underwood 1 Yd Run (Graeson Underwood Pass to Jay Graves-Billips for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q3 1:12THE Johnny Crawford III 5 Yd Run (Colby Kintner PAT failed)6–28
- Q3 4:48FURMNick Cannon 6 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Ian Williams Kick)0–28
- Q3 11:33FURMDominic Roberto 5 Yd Run (Axel Lepvreau Kick)0–21
- Q2 1:21FURMMyion Hicks 1 Yd Run (Ian Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 0:06FURMLuke Shiflett 14 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Axel Lepvreau Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →