Texas Southern vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Texas Southern

03

Toledo0-1

▸0071

Final

Glass Bowl

	1	2	3	4	T
TEXA	0	3	0	0	3
TOL	22	28	7	14	71

TEXATeam statsTOL

238Total yards549

97Pass377

141Rush172

17First downs33

5-133rd down10-12

2Turnovers0

28:03Possession31:57

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:42TOLMike Drennen II 7 Yd Run (Liam Quigley Kick)3–71
• Q4 13:38TOLCooper Rusk 10 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Liam Quigley Kick)3–64
• Q3 10:02TOLLarry Stephens 10 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–57
• Q2 1:20TOLDalton Andrews 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–50
• Q2 5:44TOLLarry Stephens 16 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–43
• Q2 9:37TOLPeny Boone 17 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–36
• Q2 10:55TEXACurtis Falkenburg 34 Yd Field Goal 3–29
• Q2 14:55TOLJacquez Stuart 3 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–29
• Q1 0:42TOLJerjuan Newton 37 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–22
• Q1 4:12TOLPeny Boone 1 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–15
• Q1 10:01TOLPeny Boone 1 Yd Run (Anthony Torres Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8

How the model called it

Market line

TOL −39

Against the number

TOL covered

line TOL −39

What the numbers say

• TEXA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TOL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TOL 100%50%TEXA 100%

Kickoff153 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TOL (top)TEXA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TOL 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TOL −39

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

TEXA 3 – 71 TOL

Leaders

Texas Southern

• PassJace Wilson 8/20, 92 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJacorey Howard 12 CAR, 43 YDS
• RecDerek Morton 1 REC, 31 YDS

Toledo

• PassDequan Finn 16/17, 238 YDS, 3 TD
• RushPeny Boone 6 CAR, 39 YDS, 3 TD
• RecLarry Stephens III 5 REC, 74 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

136

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TOL up 54 entering the 4th quarter. Across 56 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

TOL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUCF vs New Hampshire57-3WTennessee State vs Lincoln (CA)54-0WKennesaw State vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg63-3WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3WCentral Michigan vs Central Connecticut65-10

Fourth downs

9 calls

TOL gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.TEXA 8/8 · TOL 0/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Texas Southern vs. Toledo?

Texas Southern 3, Toledo 71.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TEXA

TOL

37%

Success rate

62%

-0.13

EPA / pass

1.15

0.10

EPA / rush

0.24

40%

Early-down success

57%

19%

Pass success

72%

51%

Rush success

55%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

20%

Stuffed rush rate

7%

44%

Pass rate

43%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.1

TEXA

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

TOL

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TEXA		TOL
238	Total yards	549
97	Passing yards	377
141	Rushing yards	172
17	First downs	33
5-13	3rd down	10-12
0-0	4th down	0-0
9/21	Comp/Att	27/32
4.6	Yards per pass	11.8
3.4	Yards per rush	4.0
2	Turnovers	0
11-108	Penalties	4-43
28:03	Possession	31:57

Fourth downs

9 calls

TEXA

8/8 with the model

nothing given up

TOL

0/1 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 6:30 TOL punt on 4th & 8 at TEXA 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.17 points.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TEXA 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TOL 10/11 scoring drives

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1

TOLTD9 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q1

TEXAPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 17Q1

TOLTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

TEXAPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1

TOLTD1 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q1

TEXAINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

TOLTD3 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q1

TEXAFG12 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q2

TOLTD4 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 10Q2

TOLTD5 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q2

TEXAFUM8 pl, 51 yds· own 12Q2

TOLTD6 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q2

TEXAEND2 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

TOLTD10 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

TOLPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 27Q3

TEXAPUNT7 pl, 11 yds· own 7Q3

TOLTD11 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 35Q4

TOLTD13 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q4

TEXAEND8 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:42TOLMike Drennen II 7 Yd Run (Liam Quigley Kick)3–71
• Q4 13:38TOLCooper Rusk 10 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Liam Quigley Kick)3–64
• Q3 10:02TOLLarry Stephens 10 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–57
• Q2 1:20TOLDalton Andrews 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–50
• Q2 5:44TOLLarry Stephens 16 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–43
• Q2 9:37TOLPeny Boone 17 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–36
• Q2 10:55TEXACurtis Falkenburg 34 Yd Field Goal 3–29
• Q2 14:55TOLJacquez Stuart 3 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–29
• Q1 0:42TOLJerjuan Newton 37 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–22
• Q1 4:12TOLPeny Boone 1 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–15
• Q1 10:01TOLPeny Boone 1 Yd Run (Anthony Torres Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →