Texas Southern vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Texas Southern0-1

07

Rice1-1

▸0059

Final

Rice Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
TEXA	0	7	0	0	7
RICE	28	14	10	7	59

TEXATeam statsRICE

185Total yards485

104Pass254

81Rush231

10First downs23

2-133rd down6-12

2Turnovers0

24:26Possession35:34

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:13RICEChristian Francisco 4 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–59
• Q3 6:31RICEDaelen Alexander 1 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)7–52
• Q3 11:02RICETim Horn 48 Yd Field Goal 7–45
• Q2 1:12RICELuke McCaffrey 36 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)7–42
• Q2 4:17TEXAJyrin Johnson 15 Yd pass from Jace Wilson (Curtis Falkenburg Kick)7–35
• Q2 9:37RICEDean Connors 3 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:55RICEJack Bradley 1 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)0–28
• Q1 9:29RICEKobie Campbell 70 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)0–21
• Q1 11:06RICEBraylen Walker 35 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:04RICEDaelen Alexander 1 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

RICE −35.5

Against the number

RICE covered

line RICE −35.5

What the numbers say

• TEXA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and RICE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

RICE 100%50%TEXA 100%

Kickoff141 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

RICE (top)TEXA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: RICE 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

RICE −35.5

Closing total

60.0

Model line

—

Actual result

TEXA 7 – 59 RICE

Leaders

Texas Southern

• PassJace Wilson 9/19, 104 YDS, 1 TD
• RushLaDarius Owens 11 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecJyrin Johnson 4 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD

Rice

• PassJT Daniels 11/17, 255 YDS, 4 TD
• RushDean Connors 8 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKobie Campbell 1 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

117

Points / snap

0.56

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

RICE up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 101 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

RICE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUSC vs Stanford56-10WOregon vs Hawai'i55-10WDelaware vs Towson51-13WMissouri vs Murray State51-0WTexas vs Colorado State52-0

Fourth downs

15 calls

RICE gave up 1.8 points to the model on fourth down.TEXA 7/8 · RICE 3/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Texas Southern vs. Rice?

Texas Southern 7, Rice 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (RICE) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TEXA

RICE

29%

Success rate

53%

-0.05

EPA / pass

0.89

-0.09

EPA / rush

0.22

32%

Early-down success

53%

29%

Pass success

58%

29%

Rush success

51%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

11%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

43%

Pass rate

28%

8.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

TEXA

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

49 scrimmage snaps

RICE

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TEXA		RICE
185	Total yards	485
104	Passing yards	254
81	Rushing yards	231
10	First downs	23
2-13	3rd down	6-12
0-1	4th down	1-2
9/19	Comp/Att	12/18
5.5	Yards per pass	14.1
2.6	Yards per rush	4.5
2	Turnovers	0
11-94	Penalties	6-60
24:26	Possession	35:34

Fourth downs

15 calls

TEXA

7/8 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

RICE

3/5 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 13:17 RICE punt on 4th & 1 at RICE 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TEXA 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →RICE 9/14 scoring drives

TEXAFUM1 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q1

RICETD4 pl, 16 yds· opp 16Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 13Q1

RICETD3 pl, 32 yds· opp 32Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

RICETD1 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

RICETD5 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1

TEXAPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1

RICEPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 13Q1

TEXAFUM2 pl, 14 yds· own 19Q2

RICETD5 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q2

TEXAPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2

RICEPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q2

TEXATD5 pl, 76 yds· own 18Q2

RICETD7 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 23Q2

RICEEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 34Q2

RICEFG9 pl, 47 yds· own 23Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3

RICETD6 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3

TEXADOWNS11 pl, 73 yds· own 25Q3

RICEDOWNS16 pl, 82 yds· own 2Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 16Q4

RICETD2 pl, 13 yds· opp 13Q4

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4

RICEEND2 pl, -4 yds· own 42Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:13RICEChristian Francisco 4 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–59
• Q3 6:31RICEDaelen Alexander 1 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)7–52
• Q3 11:02RICETim Horn 48 Yd Field Goal 7–45
• Q2 1:12RICELuke McCaffrey 36 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)7–42
• Q2 4:17TEXAJyrin Johnson 15 Yd pass from Jace Wilson (Curtis Falkenburg Kick)7–35
• Q2 9:37RICEDean Connors 3 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:55RICEJack Bradley 1 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)0–28
• Q1 9:29RICEKobie Campbell 70 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)0–21
• Q1 11:06RICEBraylen Walker 35 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:04RICEDaelen Alexander 1 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →