Stetson vs. Montana State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Stetson2-0

0020

Montana State1-1

▸0057

Final

Bobcat Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
STET	0	6	7	7	20
MONT	21	20	10	6	57

STETTeam statsMONT

280Total yards618

175Pass272

105Rush346

16First downs26

6-153rd down5-10

2Turnovers1

31:17Possession28:43

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:08MONTCasey Kautzman 44 Yd Field Goal 20–57
• Q4 8:36STETKaderris Roberts 1 Yd Run (Daniel Holbrook Kick)20–54
• Q4 14:51MONTCasey Kautzman 36 Yd Field Goal 13–54
• Q3 4:39MONTScottre Humphrey 3 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)13–51
• Q3 8:27MONTBrendan Hall 36 Yd Field Goal 13–44
• Q3 11:49STETKaleb Costner 4 Yd Run (Daniel Holbrook Kick)13–41
• Q2 0:02STETDaniel Holbrook 37 Yd Field Goal 6–41
• Q2 5:22MONTRylan Ortt 28 Yd Interception Return (Brendan Hall Kick)3–41
• Q2 5:32MONTJared White 51 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)3–34
• Q2 6:59STETDaniel Holbrook 45 Yd Field Goal 3–27
• Q2 10:51MONTScottre Humphrey 4 Yd Run (Brendan Hall PAT failed)0–27
• Q1 0:19MONTSean Chambers 30 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:03MONTSean Chambers 7 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:09MONTScottre Humphrey 4 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MONT −45.5

Against the number

STET covered

line MONT −45.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONT 100%50%STET 100%

Kickoff135 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MONT (top)STET (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MONT −45.5

Closing total

59.5

Model line

—

Actual result

STET 20 – 57 MONT

Leaders

Stetson

• PassMatt O'Connor 12/24, 127 YDS, 2 INT
• RushKaderris Roberts 9 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
• RecGabe Atkin 4 REC, 71 YDS

Montana State

• PassSean Chambers 9/13, 140 YDS
• RushJared White 4 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJacob Trimble 6 REC, 104 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

118

Points / snap

0.65

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MONT up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 181 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MONT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas State vs Southeast Missouri State45-0WMichigan State vs Richmond45-14WSoutheast Missouri State vs Lindenwood45-7WMissouri State vs Utah Tech59-14WSouth Alabama vs UL Monroe55-7

Fourth downs

11 calls

STET gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.STET 6/7 · MONT 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Stetson vs. Montana State?

Stetson 20, Montana State 57.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MONT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

STET

MONT

41%

Success rate

63%

0.22

EPA / pass

-0.02

0.07

EPA / rush

1.15

39%

Early-down success

65%

37%

Pass success

45%

45%

Rush success

82%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

4%

49%

Pass rate

51%

6.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.7

STET

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

MONT

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

STET		MONT
280	Total yards	618
175	Passing yards	272
105	Rushing yards	346
16	First downs	26
6-15	3rd down	5-10
0-0	4th down	2-2
16/29	Comp/Att	16/30
6.0	Yards per pass	9.1
3.0	Yards per rush	9.6
2	Turnovers	1
4-14	Penalties	5-32
31:17	Possession	28:43

Fourth downs

11 calls

STET

6/7 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

MONT

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 5:12 STET punt on 4th & 4 at STET 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.32 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

STET 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MONT 9/11 scoring drives

STETPUNT4 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

MONTTD11 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1

STETPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1

MONTTD7 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q1

STETINT4 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q1

MONTTD2 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q1

STETPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

MONTTD6 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

STETFG7 pl, 27 yds· own 45Q2

MONTTD4 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

STETTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

STETFG12 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q2

MONTEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 37Q2

MONTFUM3 pl, 57 yds· own 28Q3

STETTD5 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q3

MONTFG10 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q3

STETPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q3

MONTTD5 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q3

STETPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q3

MONTFG7 pl, 59 yds· own 22Q3

STETTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

MONTFG6 pl, 28 yds· own 45Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:08MONTCasey Kautzman 44 Yd Field Goal 20–57
• Q4 8:36STETKaderris Roberts 1 Yd Run (Daniel Holbrook Kick)20–54
• Q4 14:51MONTCasey Kautzman 36 Yd Field Goal 13–54
• Q3 4:39MONTScottre Humphrey 3 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)13–51
• Q3 8:27MONTBrendan Hall 36 Yd Field Goal 13–44
• Q3 11:49STETKaleb Costner 4 Yd Run (Daniel Holbrook Kick)13–41
• Q2 0:02STETDaniel Holbrook 37 Yd Field Goal 6–41
• Q2 5:22MONTRylan Ortt 28 Yd Interception Return (Brendan Hall Kick)3–41
• Q2 5:32MONTJared White 51 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)3–34
• Q2 6:59STETDaniel Holbrook 45 Yd Field Goal 3–27
• Q2 10:51MONTScottre Humphrey 4 Yd Run (Brendan Hall PAT failed)0–27
• Q1 0:19MONTSean Chambers 30 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:03MONTSean Chambers 7 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:09MONTScottre Humphrey 4 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →