South Dakota State vs. Southern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
South Dakota State6-0
▸
Southern Illinois1-0
Final
Saluki StadiumConference game
SOUTTeam statsSOUT
308Total yards308
161Pass225
147Rush83
15First downs20
4-123rd down4-12
1Turnovers2
31:50Possession28:10
- Q4 0:32SOUTThomas Burks 39 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q4 2:41SOUTHunter Dustman 44 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q4 12:07SOUTD'Ante' Cox 24 Yd pass from Nic Baker (Jake Baumgarte Kick)14–7
- Q3 13:30SOUTGriffin Wilde 49 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)14–0
- Q2 3:38SOUTIsaiah Davis 3 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
SOUT −14
Against the number
SOUT covered
line SOUT −14
Kickoff135 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
SOUT (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 0%
Closing line
SOUT −14
Closing total
47.5
Model line
—
Actual result
SOUT 17 – 10 SOUT
South Dakota State
- PassMark Gronowski 15/21, 161 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushIsaiah Davis 15 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGriffin Wilde 2 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
Southern Illinois
- PassNic Baker 20/24, 225 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushNic Baker 15 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecD'Ante' Cox 7 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
31.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
115
Points / snap
0.23
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSOUT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,011 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
SOUT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of South Dakota State vs. Southern Illinois?
South Dakota State 17, Southern Illinois 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SOUT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
SOUT
SOUT
35%
Success rate
41%
-0.05
EPA / pass
0.21
0.28
EPA / rush
-0.15
33%
Early-down success
43%
35%
Pass success
55%
36%
Rush success
25%
9%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
19%
Stuffed rush rate
21%
43%
Pass rate
54%
8.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.8
SOUT
8.8 yards to go on 3rd down
54 scrimmage snaps
SOUT
7.8 yards to go on 3rd down
61 scrimmage snaps
| SOUT | SOUT | |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total yards | 308 |
| 161 | Passing yards | 225 |
| 147 | Rushing yards | 83 |
| 15 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 15/22 | Comp/Att | 20/24 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 13-125 | Penalties | 7-45 |
| 31:50 | Possession | 28:10 |
SOUT
5/6 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
SOUT
5/7 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 1:26 SOUT punt on 4th & 1 at SOUT 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSOUT 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 2/10 scoring drives
SOUTDOWNS13 pl, 57 yds· own 24Q1
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 19Q1
SOUTPUNT4 pl, 10 yds· own 27Q1
SOUTPUNT4 pl, -2 yds· own 32Q1
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 35Q1
SOUTMISS10 pl, 60 yds· own 10Q2
SOUTINT5 pl, 6 yds· own 30Q2
SOUTTD5 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q2
SOUTEND4 pl, 23 yds· own 29Q2
SOUTTD3 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3
SOUTPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q3
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q3
SOUTFUM4 pl, 56 yds· own 15Q3
SOUTINT8 pl, 58 yds· own 29Q3
SOUTTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
SOUTFG15 pl, 60 yds· own 13Q4
SOUTFG9 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q4
SOUTEND2 pl, -2 yds· opp 44Q4
- Q4 0:32SOUTThomas Burks 39 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q4 2:41SOUTHunter Dustman 44 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q4 12:07SOUTD'Ante' Cox 24 Yd pass from Nic Baker (Jake Baumgarte Kick)14–7
- Q3 13:30SOUTGriffin Wilde 49 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)14–0
- Q2 3:38SOUTIsaiah Davis 3 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →