South Carolina vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SCTeam statsMIZ
- Q4 2:46MIZCody Schrader 11 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)12–34
- Q4 10:31SCMitch Jeter 21 Yd Field Goal 12–27
- Q4 13:42MIZHarrison Mevis 53 Yd Field Goal 9–27
- Q3 7:07SCMitch Jeter 38 Yd Field Goal 9–24
- Q3 10:37SCMitch Jeter 41 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 0:31SCMitch Jeter 51 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 1:50MIZHarrison Mevis 21 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q2 8:21MIZBrady Cook 17 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:46MIZCody Schrader 10 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:31MIZLuther Burden III 42 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIZ did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassSpencer Rattler 23/40, 217 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMario Anderson Jr. 12 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecNyck Harbor 2 REC, 50 YDS
- PassBrady Cook 15/15, 205 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCody Schrader 26 CAR, 159 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLuther Burden III 5 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,205 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:31MIZ +18%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 42 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
- Q1 0:46MIZ +13%
Cody Schrader run for 10 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
- Q2 8:21MIZ +7%
Brady Cook run for 17 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. Missouri?
South Carolina 12, Missouri 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
| SC | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 286 | Total yards | 418 |
| 217 | Passing yards | 205 |
| 69 | Rushing yards | 213 |
| 20 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 23/40 | Comp/Att | 15/15 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 13.7 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-35 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 31:08 | Possession | 28:52 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:31 SC field goal on 4th & 3 at MIZ 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:46MIZCody Schrader 11 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)12–34
- Q4 10:31SCMitch Jeter 21 Yd Field Goal 12–27
- Q4 13:42MIZHarrison Mevis 53 Yd Field Goal 9–27
- Q3 7:07SCMitch Jeter 38 Yd Field Goal 9–24
- Q3 10:37SCMitch Jeter 41 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 0:31SCMitch Jeter 51 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 1:50MIZHarrison Mevis 21 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q2 8:21MIZBrady Cook 17 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:46MIZCody Schrader 10 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:31MIZLuther Burden III 42 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1580, SC Elo 1549 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -3.6 (61% to win) — 3.9 points clear of SC's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMissouri leads 10–6 · 44% have been one-possession games
| SC | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#54) | CORE overall | +20.7 (#12) |
| -1 / -2 | offense / defense | +12 / -9 |
| 1.90 | points / drive | 2.80 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 1.82 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →