Post vs. Wagner: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Post1-7
Wagner0-2
▸Final
Wagner College Stadium
POSTTeam statsWAGN
306Total yards400
238Pass161
68Rush239
15First downs18
3-113rd down2-8
2Turnovers1
32:30Possession27:30
- Q4 7:45POSTJermaine Tillery 19 Yd pass from Malakai Taylor (Aden Caine Kick)21–48
- Q4 14:41POSTIsaiah Rush 24 Yd pass from Malakai Taylor (Aden Caine Kick)14–48
- Q3 4:15WAGNRickey Spruill 43 Yd Run (Ryan Liszner PAT failed)8–48
- Q3 13:19WAGNZachary Palmer-Smith 28 Yd Run (Drew Borner Kick)8–42
- Q2 0:17WAGNRickey Spruill 5 Yd pass from Steven Krajewski (Ryan Liszner Kick)8–35
- Q2 5:33POSTJoshua Tracey 23 Yd pass from Malakai Taylor (Aden Caine Kick)7–28
- Q2 9:02WAGNRickey Spruill 4 Yd Run (Drew Borner Kick)0–28
- Q1 4:01WAGNRickey Spruill 1 Yd Run (Ryan Liszner Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:21WAGNZachary Palmer-Smith 3 Yd Run (Drew Borner Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:29WAGNGuenson Alexis 13 Yd pass from Steven Krajewski (Ryan Liszner Kick)0–7
What the numbers say
- WAGN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and POST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.5 vs 3rd & 8.0
- POST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
Kickoff129 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WAGN (top)POST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WAGN 100%
Post
- PassMalakai Taylor 20/26, 238 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushChristian Byrd 3 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecJoshua Tracey 3 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Wagner
- PassSteven Krajewski 9/11, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- RushZach Palmer-Smith 14 CAR, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJaylen Bonelli 4 REC, 66 YDS
25sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
118
Points / snap
0.58
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAGN up 40 entering the 4th quarter. Across 265 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WAGN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Post vs. Wagner?
Post 21, Wagner 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAGN) was correct.
POST
WAGN
39%
Success rate
51%
0.21
EPA / pass
0.80
-0.23
EPA / rush
0.20
42%
Early-down success
54%
57%
Pass success
50%
23%
Rush success
51%
15%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
11%
29%
Stuffed rush rate
17%
49%
Pass rate
28%
8.0
Avg 3rd-down distance
10.5
POST
8.0 yards to go on 3rd down
61 scrimmage snaps
WAGN
10.5 yards to go on 3rd down
57 scrimmage snaps
| POST | WAGN | |
|---|---|---|
| 306 | Total yards | 400 |
| 238 | Passing yards | 161 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 239 |
| 15 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/26 | Comp/Att | 12/16 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 10.1 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 7-74 |
| 32:30 | Possession | 27:30 |
POST
4/5 with the model
−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
WAGN
3/4 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 8:51 POST go for it on 4th & 14 at WAGN 26. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishPOST 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WAGN 7/13 scoring drives
POSTFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 18Q1
POSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 28Q1
WAGNTD5 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
POSTINT7 pl, 35 yds· own 22Q1
WAGNTD4 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1
WAGNTD3 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q1
POSTDOWNS9 pl, 38 yds· own 26Q1
WAGNTD9 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2
WAGNPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 28Q2
POSTTD6 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2
POSTPUNT4 pl, -8 yds· own 45Q2
WAGNTD6 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2
POSTEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q2
WAGNTD9 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q3
POSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3
WAGNTD4 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3
POSTDOWNS8 pl, 50 yds· own 37Q3
WAGNPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 17Q3
POSTTD3 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q3
WAGNFUM3 pl, -14 yds· own 41Q4
WAGNPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 45Q4
POSTTD8 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q4
POSTDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 21Q4
WAGNPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 12Q4
POSTDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· own 23Q4
WAGNUncateg2 pl, 0 yds· opp 31Q4
- Q4 7:45POSTJermaine Tillery 19 Yd pass from Malakai Taylor (Aden Caine Kick)21–48
- Q4 14:41POSTIsaiah Rush 24 Yd pass from Malakai Taylor (Aden Caine Kick)14–48
- Q3 4:15WAGNRickey Spruill 43 Yd Run (Ryan Liszner PAT failed)8–48
- Q3 13:19WAGNZachary Palmer-Smith 28 Yd Run (Drew Borner Kick)8–42
- Q2 0:17WAGNRickey Spruill 5 Yd pass from Steven Krajewski (Ryan Liszner Kick)8–35
- Q2 5:33POSTJoshua Tracey 23 Yd pass from Malakai Taylor (Aden Caine Kick)7–28
- Q2 9:02WAGNRickey Spruill 4 Yd Run (Drew Borner Kick)0–28
- Q1 4:01WAGNRickey Spruill 1 Yd Run (Ryan Liszner Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:21WAGNZachary Palmer-Smith 3 Yd Run (Drew Borner Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:29WAGNGuenson Alexis 13 Yd pass from Steven Krajewski (Ryan Liszner Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →