Notre Dame vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NDTeam statsSTAN
- Q4 7:16STANJustin Lamson 4 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)56–23
- Q4 12:41NDJavontae Jean-Baptiste 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Spencer Shrader Kick)56–16
- Q3 1:12NDAudric Estime 25 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)49–16
- Q3 6:08NDJordan Faison 45 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)42–16
- Q3 10:25NDAudric Estime 5 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)35–16
- Q2 0:19NDGi'Bran Payne 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)28–16
- Q2 3:53NDAudric Estime 6 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)21–16
- Q2 8:57STANJoshua Karty 56 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 11:56NDJaden Greathouse 15 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)14–13
- Q1 1:31STANTiger Bachmeier 14 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)7–13
- Q1 2:23STANJoshua Karty 23 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 5:37NDAudric Estime 39 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:59STANJoshua Karty 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- STAN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ND did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 3.2
- STAN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassSam Hartman 8/14, 140 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAudric Estime 25 CAR, 238 YDS, 4 TD
- RecJordan Faison 3 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAshton Daniels 15/25, 152 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJustin Lamson 10 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEJ Smith 7 REC, 116 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:31STAN +7%
Tiger Bachmeier run for 14 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)
- Q2 11:56ND +6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 15 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Stanford?
Notre Dame 56, Stanford 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| ND | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 521 | Total yards | 359 |
| 140 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 381 | Rushing yards | 143 |
| 26 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-9 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 8/15 | Comp/Att | 21/42 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 7.9 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-49 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 26:58 | Possession | 33:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:13 ND punt on 4th & 2 at ND 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:16STANJustin Lamson 4 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)56–23
- Q4 12:41NDJavontae Jean-Baptiste 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Spencer Shrader Kick)56–16
- Q3 1:12NDAudric Estime 25 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)49–16
- Q3 6:08NDJordan Faison 45 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)42–16
- Q3 10:25NDAudric Estime 5 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)35–16
- Q2 0:19NDGi'Bran Payne 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)28–16
- Q2 3:53NDAudric Estime 6 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)21–16
- Q2 8:57STANJoshua Karty 56 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 11:56NDJaden Greathouse 15 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)14–13
- Q1 1:31STANTiger Bachmeier 14 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)7–13
- Q1 2:23STANJoshua Karty 23 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 5:37NDAudric Estime 39 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:59STANJoshua Karty 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1179, ND Elo 2010 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +30.8 (4% to win) — 5.3 points clear of ND's market line of +25.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 25–14 · Notre Dame has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| ND | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.3 (#5) | CORE overall | -15.4 (#110) |
| +14 / -15 | offense / defense | -7 / +8 |
| 3.02 | points / drive | 1.84 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 3.35 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →