Morgan State vs. Yale: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Morgan State0-1

03

Yale0-2

▸0045

Final

Yale Bowl

	1	2	3	4	T
MORG	0	3	0	0	3
YALE	0	17	28	0	45

MORGTeam statsYALE

204Total yards521

118Pass366

86Rush155

12First downs25

5-173rd down8-15

2Turnovers1

29:56Possession30:04

Scoring plays

• Q3 1:32YALEJoseph Vaughn 36 Yd Interception Return (Jack Bosman Kick)3–45
• Q3 2:19YALEJoey Felton 25 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)3–38
• Q3 7:17YALETre Peterson 8 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)3–31
• Q3 13:34YALEMason Tipton 33 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)3–24
• Q2 0:17YALERyan Lindley 3 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)3–17
• Q2 5:12YALEMason Tipton 31 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)3–10
• Q2 8:47YALEJack Bosman 24 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q2 14:10MORGBeckett Leary 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

YALE −15.5

Against the number

YALE covered

line YALE −15.5

What the numbers say

• MORG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and YALE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

YALE 100%50%MORG 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

YALE (top)MORG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: YALE 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

YALE −15.5

Closing total

39.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MORG 3 – 45 YALE

Leaders

Morgan State

• PassDominique Anthony 9/15, 92 YDS, 1 INT
• RushMyles Miree 13 CAR, 36 YDS
• RecDemier Shipley 3 REC, 45 YDS

Yale

• PassNolan Grooms 29/38, 363 YDS, 4 TD
• RushNolan Grooms 9 CAR, 87 YDS
• RecMason Tipton 9 REC, 136 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

139

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

YALE up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 169 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

YALE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky66-13WMemphis vs Bethune-Cookman56-14WWestern Carolina vs Charleston Southern77-28WMonmouth vs Lehigh49-7WAlabama vs Chattanooga66-10

Fourth downs

19 calls

MORG gave up 2.5 points to the model on fourth down.MORG 4/10 · YALE 7/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Morgan State vs. Yale?

Morgan State 3, Yale 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (YALE) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MORG

YALE

28%

Success rate

47%

-0.33

EPA / pass

0.66

-0.18

EPA / rush

0.15

25%

Early-down success

45%

24%

Pass success

59%

33%

Rush success

32%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

12%

Stuffed rush rate

16%

51%

Pass rate

57%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.6

MORG

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

YALE

4.6 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MORG		YALE
204	Total yards	521
118	Passing yards	366
86	Rushing yards	155
12	First downs	25
5-17	3rd down	8-15
0-2	4th down	0-0
15/30	Comp/Att	30/40
3.9	Yards per pass	9.2
2.4	Yards per rush	4.8
2	Turnovers	1
4-48	Penalties	5-45
29:56	Possession	30:04

Fourth downs

19 calls

MORG

4/10 with the model

−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

YALE

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 7:03 MORG go for it on 4th & 9 at YALE 19. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.88 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MORG 2/15 scoring drives← own end zone →YALE 6/13 scoring drives

MORGPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 23Q1

YALEMISS10 pl, 50 yds· own 42Q1

MORGPUNT8 pl, 34 yds· own 20Q1

YALEPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 10Q1

MORGPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 27Q1

YALEFUM2 pl, 1 yds· own 28Q1

MORGFG4 pl, 8 yds· opp 29Q1

YALEFG12 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q2

MORGPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 33Q2

YALETD7 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2

MORGPUNT4 pl, 23 yds· own 29Q2

YALEPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 8Q2

MORGINT3 pl, 21 yds· own 23Q2

YALETD6 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2

MORGEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q2

YALETD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

MORGDOWNS7 pl, 14 yds· opp 47Q3

YALETD8 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

MORGPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 34Q3

YALETD6 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3

MORGTD3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

MORGPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 30Q3

YALEPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 19Q4

MORGDOWNS9 pl, 45 yds· own 37Q4

YALEPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 18Q4

MORGPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· opp 45Q4

YALEPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q4

MORGEND5 pl, 21 yds· opp 49Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 1:32YALEJoseph Vaughn 36 Yd Interception Return (Jack Bosman Kick)3–45
• Q3 2:19YALEJoey Felton 25 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)3–38
• Q3 7:17YALETre Peterson 8 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)3–31
• Q3 13:34YALEMason Tipton 33 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)3–24
• Q2 0:17YALERyan Lindley 3 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)3–17
• Q2 5:12YALEMason Tipton 31 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)3–10
• Q2 8:47YALEJack Bosman 24 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q2 14:10MORGBeckett Leary 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →