Missouri State vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Missouri State

0017

Kansas

▸0048

Final

Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MOST	7	3	0	7	17
KU	7	10	10	21	48

MOSTTeam statsKU

217Total yards521

143Pass276

74Rush245

10First downs27

1-93rd down6-11

2Turnovers1

26:13Possession33:47

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:57KUSevion Morrison 5 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)17–48
• Q4 7:49KUDevin Neal 6 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Owen Piepergerdes Kick)17–41
• Q4 10:18KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 24 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)17–34
• Q4 14:57MOSTJmariyae Robinson 5 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)17–27
• Q3 3:18KUSeth Keller 35 Yd Field Goal 10–27
• Q3 10:29KUDylan McDuffie 17 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)10–24
• Q2 1:05KUSeth Keller 28 Yd Field Goal 10–17
• Q2 11:03KULuke Grimm 14 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Seth Keller Kick)10–14
• Q2 12:11MOSTOwen Rozanc 37 Yd Field Goal 10–7
• Q1 2:24MOSTJmariyae Robinson 2 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)7–7
• Q1 11:11KUDevin Neal 48 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

KU −32.5

Against the number

MOST covered

line KU −32.5

What the numbers say

• MOST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 34% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

KU 100%50%MOST 100%

Kickoff131 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

KU (top)MOST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

KU −32.5

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MOST 17 – 48 KU

Leaders

Missouri State

• PassJacob Clark 14/21, 143 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushJacob Clark 8 CAR, 36 YDS
• RecCeldon Manning 2 REC, 31 YDS

Kansas

• PassJason Bean 22/28, 276 YDS, 2 TD
• RushDevin Neal 13 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
• RecLawrence Arnold 4 REC, 77 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

31sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

116

Points / snap

0.56

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

KU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

KU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOhio State vs Indiana23-3WStanford vs Hawai'i37-24WSouth Carolina vs North Carolina31-17WPenn State vs West Virginia38-15WWagner vs Sacred Heart17-10

Fourth downs

12 calls

MOST gave up 1.8 points to the model on fourth down.MOST 4/7 · KU 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Kansas?

Missouri State 17, Kansas 48.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MOST

KU

34%

Success rate

59%

0.42

EPA / pass

0.77

0.07

EPA / rush

0.36

36%

Early-down success

59%

46%

Pass success

64%

23%

Rush success

55%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

4%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

48%

Pass rate

42%

7.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.5

MOST

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

KU

5.5 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MOST		KU
217	Total yards	521
143	Passing yards	276
74	Rushing yards	245
10	First downs	27
1-9	3rd down	6-11
1-1	4th down	1-2
14/21	Comp/Att	22/28
6.8	Yards per pass	9.9
2.7	Yards per rush	6.4
2	Turnovers	1
6-50	Penalties	3-35
26:13	Possession	33:47

Fourth downs

12 calls

MOST

4/7 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

KU

3/4 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 6:07 MOST punt on 4th & 2 at MOST 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MOST 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →KU 8/12 scoring drives

MOSTPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1

KUTD4 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

KUFUM3 pl, 10 yds· own 36Q1

MOSTTD10 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

KUDOWNS5 pl, 38 yds· own 35Q1

MOSTFG7 pl, 53 yds· own 27Q1

KUTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

MOSTPUNT8 pl, 30 yds· own 18Q2

KUFG10 pl, 75 yds· own 14Q2

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2

KUEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 30Q2

KUTD9 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

KUFG10 pl, 55 yds· own 28Q3

MOSTTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

KUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

MOSTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

KUTD5 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q4

MOSTINT2 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4

KUTD4 pl, 23 yds· opp 23Q4

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

KUEND5 pl, 18 yds· own 34Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:57KUSevion Morrison 5 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)17–48
• Q4 7:49KUDevin Neal 6 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Owen Piepergerdes Kick)17–41
• Q4 10:18KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 24 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)17–34
• Q4 14:57MOSTJmariyae Robinson 5 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)17–27
• Q3 3:18KUSeth Keller 35 Yd Field Goal 10–27
• Q3 10:29KUDylan McDuffie 17 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)10–24
• Q2 1:05KUSeth Keller 28 Yd Field Goal 10–17
• Q2 11:03KULuke Grimm 14 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Seth Keller Kick)10–14
• Q2 12:11MOSTOwen Rozanc 37 Yd Field Goal 10–7
• Q1 2:24MOSTJmariyae Robinson 2 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)7–7
• Q1 11:11KUDevin Neal 48 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →