Maine vs. North Dakota State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Maine0-1

07

North Dakota State1-0

▸0044

Final

Fargodome

	1	2	3	4	T
MAIN	0	0	0	7	7
NDSU	6	10	14	14	44

MAINTeam statsNDSU

223Total yards456

117Pass192

106Rush264

13First downs25

3-113rd down6-13

4Turnovers0

25:00Possession35:00

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:22NDSUOwen Johnson 1 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)7–44
• Q4 6:06MAINJohn Gay 13 Yd Run (Cody Williams Kick)7–37
• Q4 12:54NDSUCole Payton 61 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–37
• Q3 1:18NDSUCole Payton 2 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–30
• Q3 8:22NDSUCam Miller 1 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–23
• Q2 0:52NDSUCam Miller 2 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–16
• Q2 4:15NDSUGriffin Crosa 31 Yd Field Goal 0–9
• Q1 4:01NDSUGriffin Crosa 40 Yd Field Goal 0–6
• Q1 11:29NDSUGriffin Crosa 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

NDSU −35.5

Against the number

NDSU covered

line NDSU −35.5

What the numbers say

• MAIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NDSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NDSU 100%50%MAIN 100%

Kickoff143 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NDSU (top)MAIN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NDSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NDSU −35.5

Closing total

50.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MAIN 7 – 44 NDSU

Leaders

Maine

• PassDerek Robertson 18/29, 117 YDS, 3 INT
• RushTristen Kenan 14 CAR, 53 YDS
• RecJamie Lamson 6 REC, 42 YDS

North Dakota State

• PassCam Miller 14/19, 152 YDS
• RushCole Payton 8 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
• RecZach Mathis 4 REC, 62 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

126

Points / snap

0.40

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NDSU up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 530 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

NDSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WIdaho vs Lamar42-17WColumbia vs Georgetown30-0WEast Carolina vs Gardner-Webb44-0WNorfolk State vs Delaware State44-21WOhio State vs Minnesota37-3

Fourth downs

13 calls

MAIN gave up 1.9 points to the model on fourth down.MAIN 4/6 · NDSU 7/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Maine vs. North Dakota State?

Maine 7, North Dakota State 44.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NDSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MAIN

NDSU

39%

Success rate

54%

-0.17

EPA / pass

0.24

0.02

EPA / rush

0.28

43%

Early-down success

57%

32%

Pass success

60%

48%

Rush success

51%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

13%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

57%

Pass rate

35%

8.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

MAIN

8.3 yards to go on 3rd down

54 scrimmage snaps

NDSU

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MAIN		NDSU
223	Total yards	456
117	Passing yards	192
106	Rushing yards	264
13	First downs	25
3-11	3rd down	6-13
0-2	4th down	1-3
18/29	Comp/Att	17/24
4.0	Yards per pass	8.0
4.2	Yards per rush	5.6
4	Turnovers	0
6-46	Penalties	9-90
25:00	Possession	35:00

Fourth downs

13 calls

MAIN

4/6 with the model

−1.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

NDSU

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 9:24 MAIN punt on 4th & 1 at MAIN 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MAIN 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →NDSU 8/11 scoring drives

MAINFUM3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q1

NDSUFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 14Q1

MAINPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 27Q1

NDSUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 21Q1

MAININT6 pl, 12 yds· own 35Q1

NDSUFG5 pl, 1 yds· opp 23Q1

MAINPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 35Q1

NDSUDOWNS10 pl, 82 yds· own 17Q1

MAINPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 1Q2

NDSUFG11 pl, 40 yds· own 47Q2

MAINPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

NDSUTD6 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q2

MAINMISS8 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q2

NDSUTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

MAINDOWNS5 pl, 20 yds· own 35Q3

NDSUDOWNS7 pl, 22 yds· own 45Q3

MAININT1 pl, 0 yds· own 33Q3

NDSUTD5 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q3

MAINDOWNS5 pl, 29 yds· own 29Q3

NDSUTD2 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q4

MAINTD12 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q4

NDSUTD9 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q4

MAINEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:22NDSUOwen Johnson 1 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)7–44
• Q4 6:06MAINJohn Gay 13 Yd Run (Cody Williams Kick)7–37
• Q4 12:54NDSUCole Payton 61 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–37
• Q3 1:18NDSUCole Payton 2 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–30
• Q3 8:22NDSUCam Miller 1 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–23
• Q2 0:52NDSUCam Miller 2 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–16
• Q2 4:15NDSUGriffin Crosa 31 Yd Field Goal 0–9
• Q1 4:01NDSUGriffin Crosa 40 Yd Field Goal 0–6
• Q1 11:29NDSUGriffin Crosa 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →